21 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Arsenal vs Coventry Premier League prediction & result

Emirates Stadium, London
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Arsenal 3-0 Coventry.

Before kick-off the model made it 62% Arsenal, 22% draw, 16% Coventry — fair odds of 1.61, 4.55 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arsenal at 62% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arsenal99%Draw1%Coventry0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽K. Havertzassist: R. Calafiori
15'
⚽B. Saka
23'
27'
Caleb Yirenkyi
Gabriel Magalhães
34'
⚽M. Odegaardassist: B. White
49'
62'
🔁C. Yirenkyiout: V. Torp
🔁D. Riceout: M. Zubimendi
68'
🔁B. Sakaout: N. Madueke
68'
70'
🔁B. Thomas-Asanteout: J. Rudoni
70'
🔁E. Simmsout: T. Awoniyi
🔁M. Odegaardout: M. Merino
76'
🔁C. Tzolisout: E. Eze
76'
🔁R. Calafioriout: P. Hincapie
81'
82'
🔁L. Tchaounaout: G. Hamer

Match stats — Arsenal vs Coventry

65%Possession35%
20Shots4
6On target1
8Corners2
1.8xG0.28

Goals against chances

Arsenal3 from 1.80 xGmore than the chances were worth
Coventry0 from 0.28 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. RayaG
  • 4B. WhiteD
  • 3C. MosqueraD
  • 6GabrielD
  • 33R. CalafioriD
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
  • 41D. RiceM
  • 7B. SakaM
  • 8M. OdegaardM
  • 17C. TzolisM
  • 29K. HavertzF
Substitutes
  • 13K. ArrizabalagaG
  • 5P. HincapieD
  • 36M. ZubimendiM
  • 22E. NwaneriM
  • 56M. DowmanM
  • 23M. MerinoM
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 14V. GyökeresF
  • 20N. MaduekeF
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Coventry 4-1-4-1
  • 19C. RushworthG
  • 27M. van EwijkD
  • 4B. ThomasD
  • 24A. AmendaD
  • 3J. DasilvaD
  • 6M. GrimesM
  • 18L. TchaounaM
  • 8C. YirenkyiM
  • 16F. OnyekaM
  • 23B. Thomas-AsanteM
  • 9E. SimmsF
Substitutes
  • 13B. WilsonG
  • 15L. KitchingD
  • 29V. TorpM
  • 22J. LatibeaudiereD
  • 7T. SakamotoM
  • 38G. HamerM
  • 28J. EcclesM
  • 5J. RudoniM
  • 14T. AwoniyiF
Coach: Frank Lampard

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Arsenal440081+712
20Coventry4004010-100

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Coventry

  • 21 August 2026Arsenal 3–0 CoventryPremier League
  • 24 January 2014Arsenal 4–0 CoventryFA Cup
  • 26 September 2012Arsenal 6–1 CoventryLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Arsenal and Coventry

Arsenal

  • B. Saka3 goals
  • M. Ødegaard2 goals
  • K. Havertz2 goals

Coventry

No league goals yet this season.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.