Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Korona Kielce 1-1 Motor Lublin.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Korona Kielce, 25% draw, 26% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Korona Kielce at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Xavier DziekońskiG
- 71Wiktor DługoszD
- 23Slobodan RubežićD
- 2Ariel MosórD
- 6Marcel PięczekD
- 35Kamil JakubczykM
- 18Patrik HellebrandM
- 9Stjepan DavidovićM
- 8Martin RemacleM
- 22Morgan FassbenderM
- 14Mariusz StępińskiF
- 10NonoM
- 99Daniel BąkF
- 87Rafał MamlaG
- 12Michał MikielewiczG
- 24Bartłomiej SmolarczykD
- 67Norbert BarczakD
- 44Constantinos SotiriouD
- 11Konrad MatuszewskiD
- 21Konrad CiszekD
- 71Mihai PopaG
- 29Thomas SantosD
- 18Bartosz BereszyńskiD
- 39Marek Kristián BartošD
- 24Filip LubereckiD
- 8Christopher SimonM
- 2Paskal MeyerM
- 7Ivo RodriguesM
- 30Mbaye NdiayeF
- 10Karol CzubakF
- 70Makan AïkoF
- 11Fábio RonaldoM
- 17Kamil LukoszekM
- 6Mateusz ŁęgowskiM
- 23Florian HaxhaM
- 4Tin PlavotićD
- 33Gašper TratnikG
- 5Artem AkatovD
- 13Krystian BrzozowskiD
- 16Franciszek LewandowskiM
Form going into Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
Korona Kielce
- W2-1away to Widzew Łódź15 August 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026
Motor Lublin
- W1-0GKS Katowice16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Motor Lublin
- 22 August 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 28 February 2026Motor Lublin 2–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 23 August 2025Korona Kielce 2–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 9 February 2025Korona Kielce 1–0 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
- 4 August 2024Motor Lublin 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 22 June 2024Korona Kielce 1–1 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Motor Lublin
Korona Kielce
- M. Stępiński4 goals
- M. Faßbender3 goals
Motor Lublin
- K. Czubak5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.