22 August 2026, 15:30 UTC

Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Gliwice
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Piast Gliwice 1-1 Legia Warszawa.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Piast Gliwice, 27% draw, 41% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Legia Warszawa at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Piast Gliwice0%Draw4%Legia Warszawa96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽L. Zjawinskiassist: R. Augustyniak
42'
Robert Deziel Jr.
Juande Rivas
50'
🔁E. Fikajout: J. Lewicki
56'
🔁O. Lesniakout: Q. Boisgard
56'
🔁J. Lokiloout: I. Lima
56'
57'
🔁P. Wszolekout: A. Reca
81'
🔁H. Arreiolout: D. Szymanski
81'
🔁M. Sevcikout: W. Urbanski
81'
🔁L. Zjawinskiout: M. Rajovic
Ivan Lima
90+10'
🔁S. Ntamackout: A. Katsantonis
90'
90+1'
🔁R. Vinagreout: K. Chodyna
⚽L. Sancaassist: I. Lima
90'

Match stats — Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa

59%Possession41%
14Shots13
3On target3
4Corners5
1.11xG0.97

Goals against chances

Piast Gliwice1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth
Legia Warszawa1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Piast Gliwice 4-4-2
  • 75D. GrilG
  • 99E. TwumasiD
  • 5JuandeD
  • 4J. CzerwinskiD
  • 3E. FikajD
  • 98J. LokiloM
  • 31O. LesniakM
  • 27J. LabojkoM
  • 80H. VallejoM
  • 19S. NtamackF
  • 11L. SancaF
Substitutes
  • 12M. Mendes-DudzinskiG
  • 28F. BorowskiD
  • 15L. PitanD
  • 36J. LewickiD
  • 77S. MuchaM
  • 17Q. BoisgardM
  • 18O. MaziarzM
  • 10A. KatsantonisF
  • 90I. LimaM
Coach: Daniel Mysliwiec
Legia Warszawa 3-1-4-2
  • 89O. HindrichG
  • 91K. PiatkowskiD
  • 8R. AugustyniakD
  • 5R. DezielD
  • 6H. ArreiolM
  • 22P. WszolekM
  • 23M. SevcikM
  • 67B. KapustkaM
  • 19R. VinagreM
  • 79L. ZjawinskiF
  • 9R. AdamskiF
Substitutes
  • 1I. BrkicG
  • 24Z. ArsenicD
  • 4D. SzymanskiM
  • 13A. RecaD
  • 53W. UrbanskiM
  • 17M. SzczepaniakM
  • 77F. PrzybylkoM
  • 11K. ChodynaM
  • 7J. KuchtaF
Coach: Marek Papszun

Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa

Piast Gliwice

  • L3-4Wieczysta Kraków15 August 2026

Legia Warszawa

  • W5-0Radomiak Radom14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Piast Gliwice84131513+213
2Legia Warszawa8440167+916

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Legia Warszawa

  • 22 August 2026Piast Gliwice 1–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 14 December 2025Legia Warszawa 0–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
  • 6 December 2025Piast Gliwice 2–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 8 February 2025Piast Gliwice 1–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
  • 18 January 2025Piast Gliwice 0–0 Legia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs
  • 4 August 2024Legia Warszawa 1–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Legia Warszawa

Piast Gliwice

  • Leandro Sanca4 goals1 assists
  • Hugo Vallejo3 goals

Legia Warszawa

  • R. Augustyniak3 goals1 assists
  • R. Adamski3 goals
  • Ł. Zjawiński3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.