7 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town FA Cup prediction & result

Stadium MK, Milton Keynes
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Swindon Town.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Milton Keynes Dons, 24% draw, 21% Swindon Town — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Milton Keynes Dons at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Milton Keynes Dons97%Draw3%Swindon Town0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Marvin Ekpitetaassist: Charlie Goode
6'
⚽Aaron Collinsassist: Elijah Campbell
13'
45+1'
⚽Aaron Drinanassist: James Ball
🔁Samuel Silveraout: Gethin Jones
45'
🔁Dan Crowleyout: Ben Wiles
45'
57'
Anthony Munda
🔁Sam Nombeout: Callum Paterson
62'
62'
🔁Joel McGregorout: Kaelan Majekodunmi
63'
🔁Anthony Mundaout: Tom Nichols
73'
🔁Matthew Virtue-Thickout: Ollie Palmer
73'
🔁Joe Snowdonout: Jaylan Pearman
🔁Aaron Collinsout: ibrahim fullah
80'
🔁Elijah Campbellout: Cohen Bramall
80'
81'
Tom Nichols
Jack Sanders
83'
Alex Gilbey
90+1'
90+1'
🔁James Ballout: Louis Millard

Match stats — Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

54%Possession46%
10Shots5
6On target4
3Corners4

Line-ups

Milton Keynes Dons 3-5-2
  • 1C. MacGillivrayG
  • 21M. EkpitetaD
  • 32J. SandersD
  • 5C. GoodeD
  • 17S. SilveraM
  • 8A. GilbeyM
  • 24R. WintleM
  • 7D. CrowleyM
  • 20Elijah Xavier CampbellM
  • 10A. CollinsF
  • 9S. NombeF
Substitutes
  • 4D. BarlaserM
  • 15C. BramallD
  • 22I. FullahM
  • 2G. JonesD
  • 28J. MateteM
  • 35C. NelsonD
  • 13C. PatersonF
  • 26B. WilesF
  • 51S. StaceyG
Coach: P. Warne
Swindon Town 3-4-3
  • 1C. RipleyG
  • 6J. BallD
  • 26D. ButlerM
  • 2M. ClarkM
  • 23A. DrinanF
  • 33Joel McGregorD
  • 27A. MundaF
  • 5S. NegruD
  • 19J. SnowdonF
  • 25J. ThomsonM
  • 24M. Virtue-ThickM
Substitutes
  • 7T. NicholsM
  • 21K. MajekodunmiD
  • 29A. HackfordF
  • 28O. PalmerF
  • 22J. PearmanM
  • 12Lewis Moore WardG
  • 38Lucas Griffiths-BrownD
  • 39L. MillardF
Coach: Ian Holloway

Form going into Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

Milton Keynes Dons

League One

  • W6-1Doncaster31 October 2026
  • W4-1Bromley27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Stevenage24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Blackpool20 October 2026

Swindon Town

League Two

  • W2-1Rotherham31 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Bristol Rovers24 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Barnet20 October 2026
  • D1-1Walsall17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Milton Keynes Dons won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Milton Keynes Dons scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Milton Keynes Dons conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Swindon Town went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Swindon Town scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Swindon Town conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
9Milton Keynes DonsLeague One145632822+621
16Swindon TownLeague Two155461621-519

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: League One · League Two

Head-to-head: Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

  • 14 March 2026Swindon Town 1–2 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
  • 26 December 2025Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 11 November 2025Milton Keynes Dons 0–4 Swindon TownEFL Trophy
  • 3 May 2025Swindon Town 0–0 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
  • 9 November 2024Milton Keynes Dons 3–1 Swindon TownLeague Two
  • 17 February 2024Swindon Town 1–2 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two

Leading scorers: Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town

Milton Keynes Dons

GoalsAssists

  • A. Collins133

Swindon Town

GoalsAssists

  • A. Drinan91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Milton Keynes Dons beat Swindon Town 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Milton Keynes Dons at 55%. The goals: Marvin Ekpiteta 6' for Milton Keynes Dons, Aaron Collins 13' for Milton Keynes Dons, Aaron Drinan 45+1' for Swindon Town.

How the call on Milton Keynes Dons v Swindon Town has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 43% / 27% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Milton Keynes Dons's chance of winning, up 12 points.

  1. Milton Keynes Dons win55%▲ +12
  2. Draw24%▼ −3
  3. Swindon Town win21%▼ −9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.