Port Vale
vs
Newport County
League Two prediction
Our model says: Port Vale 1–0 Newport County
The model makes it 41% Port Vale, 29% draw, 30% Newport County — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Port Vale 1.43, Newport County 1.15.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Port Vale's rating is built from 13 League Two matches and Newport County's from 61, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,288 matches.
Key facts
- Port Vale are 17th on 18 points from 13 games; Newport County are 14th on 19 points from 15 games — League Two.
- Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Accrington Stanley.
- Newport County have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Crewe.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 18 January 2025, ended Port Vale 3–2 Newport County.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Port Vale vs Newport County
Has the model earned this number?
Port Vale at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Port Vale vs Newport County
Port Vale
League Two
- W4-2Accrington Stanley14 November 2026
- W4-2Rochdale31 October 2026
- L0-2away to York24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gillingham20 October 2026
- W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026
Newport County
League Two
- D2-2away to Crewe14 November 2026
- W4-1Chesterfield30 October 2026
- L0-1away to Cheltenham24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rotherham20 October 2026
- D1-1York17 October 2026
What these results say
- Port Vale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Port Vale conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newport County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Newport County failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Port Vale | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 14 | Newport County | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Port Vale
Chance to finish in the top three · 7% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Newport County
- 18 January 2025Port Vale 3–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 7 September 2024Newport County 1–4 Port ValeLeague Two
- 2 May 2022Port Vale 1–2 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 11 December 2021Newport County 2–1 Port ValeLeague Two
- 16 March 2021Port Vale 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 21 November 2020Newport County 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two
Leading scorers: Port Vale and Newport County
Port Vale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Newport County (14th, with Port Vale 17th), while our numbers lean to Port Vale. Port Vale rate 0.46 in attack and 1.97 in defence, Newport County 0.48 and 2.12 (lower is better in defence), so Port Vale have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Port Vale a 1.1% chance of the title and Newport County 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Port Vale v Newport County has moved
First published on 14 Nov at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Port Vale's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Port Vale win41%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Newport County win30%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Port Vale the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Port Vale against 1.15 for Newport County. Port Vale's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.12 for Newport County.
How the model reaches 41% for Port Vale to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Port Vale to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Port Vale's ratings change nothing and Newport County's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 41%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Port Vale's ratings40%±0
- Newport County's ratings41%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Port Vale at home · Newport County away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Port Vale 13, Newport County 15.
Port Vale score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); Newport County have let in 5 there.
Newport County score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Port Vale have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Port Vale
- at Crawley Town1 Dec · League Twowin 39%
- at Shrewsbury12 Dec · League Twowin 36%
- at Colchester15 Dec · League Twowin 32%
Newport County
- vs Walsall1 Dec · League Twowin 35%
- at Crawley Town12 Dec · League Twowin 38%
- vs Oldham19 Dec · League Twowin 40%
- at Exeter City26 Dec · League Twowin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.