Guadalajara Chivas
vs
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Guadalajara Chivas, 25% draw, 19% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Guadalajara Chivas 2.37, Pumas UNAM 0.94.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Guadalajara Chivas at 56% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
- 7L. RomoD
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 28F. GonzalezM
- 14H. CamberosM
- 30S. SandovalF
- 17R. MarinF
- 9A. SepulvedaF
- 13O. WhalleyG
- 37R. LedezmaD
- 5B. GonzalezD
- 19K. CastanedaM
- 10E. AlvarezF
- 11B. GutierrezM
- 16L. ReyD
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 18J. PerezM
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LopezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5R. DuarteD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 2P. BennevendoM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 14L. HerreraF
- 23JuninhoF
- 35P. LaraG
- 19J. RivasD
- 24T. LeoneD
- 34A. AzuajeD
- 202J. DominguezD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 15I. LunaM
- 20S. TrigosM
- 22A. MedinaF
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
- W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
- 14 September 2026Guadalajara Chivas 3–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 6 April 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 6 October 2025Pumas UNAM 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 2 March 2025Pumas UNAM 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 3 November 2024Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 25 February 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
- R. Alvarado3 goals
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 2.37 goals for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.94 for Pumas UNAM; the game produced 3 and 0.
Goals
Scorers, in order: S. Sandoval 3' (Guadalajara Chivas), S. Sandoval 56' (Guadalajara Chivas), B. Gonzalez 67' (Guadalajara Chivas).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Guadalajara Chivas the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Guadalajara Chivas against 0.94 for Pumas UNAM. Guadalajara Chivas's attack/defence rating is 1.13/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.29 for Pumas UNAM.