Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Guadalajara Chivas 3-0 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Guadalajara Chivas, 24% draw, 21% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Guadalajara Chivas at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 3D. Campillo Del CampoD
- 7L. RomoD
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 28F. GonzalezM
- 14H. CamberosM
- 30S. SandovalF
- 17R. MarinF
- 9A. SepulvedaF
- 13O. WhalleyG
- 37R. LedezmaD
- 5B. GonzalezD
- 19K. CastanedaM
- 10E. AlvarezF
- 11B. GutierrezM
- 16L. ReyD
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 18J. PerezM
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LopezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5R. DuarteD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 2P. BennevendoM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 14L. HerreraF
- 23JuninhoF
- 35P. LaraG
- 19J. RivasD
- 24T. LeoneD
- 34A. AzuajeD
- 202J. DominguezD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 15I. LunaM
- 20S. TrigosM
- 22A. MedinaF
Form going into Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- W3-0away to Atletico San Luis5 September 2026
- D1-1away to CF Pachuca29 August 2026
- W5-2Club Tijuana22 August 2026
- W1-0away to Santos Laguna17 August 2026
- D1-1away to Puebla1 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
What these results say
- Guadalajara Chivas went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Guadalajara Chivas scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Pumas UNAM
- 6 April 2026Guadalajara Chivas 2–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 6 October 2025Pumas UNAM 1–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 2 March 2025Pumas UNAM 0–1 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 3 November 2024Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 25 February 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Guadalajara Chivas and Pumas UNAM
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guadalajara Chivas beat Pumas UNAM 3–0. The model had made a win for Guadalajara Chivas its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: S. Sandoval 3' for Guadalajara Chivas, S. Sandoval 56' for Guadalajara Chivas, B. Gonzalez 67' for Guadalajara Chivas. On expected goals it finished 0.86–0.50.
How the call on Guadalajara Chivas v Pumas UNAM has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 55% / 24% / 21%: the biggest move is Guadalajara Chivas's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Guadalajara Chivas win55%▲ +6
- Draw24%▼ −3
- Pumas UNAM win21%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.