Apertura - 8 · 14 September 2026, 01:00 UTC

Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez Liga MX prediction & result

Estadio TSM Corona, Torreon
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Santos Laguna 2-1 FC Juarez.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Santos Laguna, 28% draw, 23% FC Juarez — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Santos Laguna 1.83, FC Juarez 0.91.

Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Published · updated

Model insights: Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez

51%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 11%1-0 11%2-0 11%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Santos Laguna at 49% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Santos Laguna98%Draw2%FC Juarez0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Efrain Orona
19'
19'
Oscar Estupiñan
Diego González
27'
27'
Monchu
•Mauricio Cuevas
31'
🔁Efrain Oronaout: Emmanuel Echeverria
33'
Emmanuel Echeverria
52'
54'
⚽Oscar Estupiñan (pen)
🔁Eduardo Aguirreout: Esteban Lozano
56'
58'
🔁Ían Torresout: Luca Dupuy
58'
🔁Rodrigo Douradoout: Juan Alexander Sigala García
⚽Ezequiel Bullaudeassist: Mauricio Cuevas
64'
68'
🔁Oscar Estupiñanout: Madson de Souza Silva
68'
🔁Francisco Nevarezout: Javier Aquino
Mauricio Cuevas
73'
⚽Esteban Lozanoassist: Ezequiel Bullaude
78'
79'
🔁Monchuout: Ricardo Oliveira
🔁Diego Gonzálezout: Ramiro Sordo
82'
🔁Kevin Palaciosout: L. Gómez
82'
🔁Francisco Villalbaout: Javier Guemez
82'
88'
Jesus Murillo
⚽Franco Pardo (pen)
90'
90+1'
Denzell Garcia

Match stats — Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez

54%Possession46%
25Shots12
10On target5
12Corners6

Line-ups

Santos Laguna 3-4-3
  • 1C. AcevedoG
  • 18F. PardoD
  • 25F. SanchezD
  • 14E. OronaD
  • 3M. CuevasM
  • 23F. CaseresM
  • 21F. VillalbaM
  • 7D. GonzalezM
  • 77K. PalaciosF
  • 10E. BullaudeF
  • 19E. AguirreF
Substitutes
  • 33H. HolguinG
  • 4J. AbellaD
  • 17E. EcheverriaD
  • 28J. PerezD
  • 8S. Mariscal MurraM
  • 6J. GuemezM
  • 193L. GomezM
  • 20E. LozanoM
  • 26R. SordoM
Coach: Paiva Renato
FC Juarez 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. JuradoG
  • 33F. J. Nevarez PulgarinD
  • 3J. MurilloD
  • 2G. SepulvedaD
  • 4A. MayorgaD
  • 13Rodrigo DouradoM
  • 6MonchuM
  • 5D. GarciaM
  • 10J. M. Torres Ramirez I.M
  • 11J. RodriguezM
  • 19O. EstupinanF
Substitutes
  • 27G. RuizG
  • 23H. OrtegaD
  • 14E. LopezM
  • 7R. FulgencioM
  • 16J. SigalaM
  • 20J. AquinoM
  • 8Guilherme CastilhoM
  • 21RicardinhoM
  • 17L. DupuyF
Coach: Gustavo Lema

Form going into Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez

Santos Laguna

  • L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
  • D0-0Tigres UANL30 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Puebla23 August 2026
  • L0-1Guadalajara Chivas17 August 2026

FC Juarez

  • L0-2CF Pachuca5 September 2026
  • L0-4away to Toluca31 August 2026
  • L1-2Club America22 August 2026
  • L1-6away to Monterrey16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Santos Laguna8116613-74
18FC Juarez8008423-190

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs FC Juarez

  • 14 September 2026Santos Laguna 2–1 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 18 January 2026Santos Laguna 2–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 23 August 2025FC Juarez 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
  • 30 January 2025FC Juarez 1–0 Santos LagunaLiga MX
  • 7 October 2024Santos Laguna 0–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
  • 1 April 2024FC Juarez 2–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX

Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and FC Juarez

Santos Laguna

No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

FC Juarez

  • Ó. Estupiñán3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.83 goals for Santos Laguna and 0.91 for FC Juarez; the game produced 2 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Oscar Estupiñan 54' (FC Juarez), Ezequiel Bullaude 64' (Santos Laguna), Esteban Lozano 78' (Santos Laguna).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Santos Laguna the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Santos Laguna against 0.91 for FC Juarez. Santos Laguna's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.68 for FC Juarez.