Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 3-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Cruzeiro, 27% draw, 35% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Cruzeiro at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 81Otavio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 15Fabricio BrunoD
- 43Joao MarceloD
- 27G. RojasD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 99K. ArroyoM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 8GersonM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 1CassioG
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 2Kaua MoraesD
- 12William FurtadoD
- 5Ze LucasM
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 97L. RodriguezF
- 20WesleyF
- 1MycaelG
- 25DantasD
- 33F. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JadsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8Joao CruzF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 23SantosG
- 37L. EsquivelD
- 3LeoD
- 22C. TeranD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 27J. PortillaM
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 53Dudu KogitzkiM
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
- W3-1Mirassol9 August 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba31 July 2026
Atletico Paranaense
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
- W2-0away to Santos9 August 2026
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
What these results say
- Cruzeiro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruzeiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
GoalsAssists
- Kaio Jorge142
- Matheus Pereira97
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Cruzeiro beat Atletico Paranaense 3–1. The model had made a win for Cruzeiro its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Matheus Pereira 30' for Cruzeiro, Joao Cruz 45' for Atletico Paranaense, L. Romero 71' for Cruzeiro, Kaio Jorge (penalty) 82' for Cruzeiro. On expected goals it finished 3.07–1.31.
How the call on Cruzeiro v Atletico Paranaense has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Atletico Paranaense's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Cruzeiro win38%▼ −2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Atletico Paranaense win35%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.