Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Cruzeiro 3-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Cruzeiro, 27% draw, 35% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cruzeiro at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cruzeiro vs Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
- L1-3away to Vasco da Gama30 August 2026
- W2-1Flamengo22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Corinthians16 August 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- D3-3Fluminense30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Botafogo24 August 2026
- D1-1RB Bragantino15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Cruzeiro and Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
- Matheus Pereira8 goals4 assists
- Kaio Jorge7 goals
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.