6 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Internacional vs Santos Serie A prediction & result

Porto Alegre
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Internacional 2-3 Santos.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Internacional, 29% draw, 36% Santos — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Santos at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Internacional0%Draw1%Santos99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
Benjamín Rollheiser
8'
⚽Gabriel Barbosa
•Matheus Bahia
27'
Matheus Bahia
28'
29'
⚽Gabriel Barbosa (pen)
39'
⚽C. Olivaassist: B. Rollheiser
🔁A. Sanabriaout: B. Aguirre
46'
⚽B. Aguirreassist: Thiago Maia
49'
55'
🔁G. Caballeroout: Arthur Melo
59'
Gabriel Barbosa
🔁Thiago Maiaout: Paulinho Paula
62'
Ronaldo
65'
Vitinho
69'
Paulinho Paula
69'
69'
Gustavinho
69'
Gonzalo Escobar
🔁Alan Patrickout: Bruno Henrique
75'
🔁Ronaldoout: R. Villagra
75'
Braian Aguirre
78'
78'
🔁Gabriel Barbosaout: Thaciano
78'
🔁Gabriel Bontempoout: Lima
83'
🔁B. Rollheiserout: Miguelito
83'
🔁Gustavo Henriqueout: Joao Schmidt
🔁J. Carboneroout: N. Eliasson
85'
•Vitinho
88'
⚽Bruno Henrique (pen)
90'

Match stats — Internacional vs Santos

41%Possession59%
15Shots5
6On target3
7Corners2
1.29xG1.36

Goals against chances

Internacional2 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth
Santos3 from 1.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Internacional 4-2-3-1
  • 23Matheus CunhaG
  • 15Bruno GomesD
  • 4F. TorresD
  • 25G. MercadoD
  • 6Matheus BahiaD
  • 16RonaldoM
  • 29Thiago MaiaM
  • 28VitinhoM
  • 10Alan PatrickM
  • 7J. CarboneroM
  • 19A. SanabriaF
Substitutes
  • 12AnthoniG
  • 18JuninhoD
  • 35B. AguirreD
  • 3G. MaripanD
  • 17N. EliassonM
  • 27Paulinho PaulaM
  • 8Bruno HenriqueM
  • 5R. VillagraM
  • 51J. Gabriel Kempes GoncalvesM
Coach: Paulo Pezzolano
Santos 4-2-3-1
  • 77Gabriel BrazaoG
  • 18Igor ViniciusD
  • 15Willian AraoD
  • 14Luan PeresD
  • 31G. EscobarD
  • 48Gustavo HenriqueM
  • 28C. OlivaM
  • 8Gabriel BontempoM
  • 32B. RollheiserM
  • 17G. CaballeroM
  • 9Gabriel BarbosaF
Substitutes
  • 1DiogenesG
  • 42Joao AlencarD
  • 26Joao AnaniasD
  • 81S. PierriM
  • 6Arthur MeloM
  • 25Gabriel MeninoM
  • 30MiguelitoM
  • 5Joao SchmidtM
  • 16ThacianoM
Coach: Cuca

Form going into Internacional vs Santos

Internacional

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3away to Bahia30 August 2026
  • D0-0Atletico Mineiro22 August 2026
  • D1-1Remo17 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Palmeiras9 August 2026
  • D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026

Santos

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Corinthians30 August 2026
  • D1-1Mirassol23 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Vasco da Gama16 August 2026
  • L0-2Atletico Paranaense9 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Sao Paulo29 July 2026

What these results say

  • Internacional did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Internacional had two goals or fewer.
  • Santos scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Internacional34911143842-438
9Santos341211115049+147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Internacional and Santos

Internacional

GoalsAssists

  • J. Carbonero74

Santos

GoalsAssists

  • Gabriel Barbosa154
  • Neymar83

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Santos won 3–2 at Internacional. The model had made a win for Santos its most likely outcome, at 36%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gabriel Barbosa 8' for Santos, Gabriel Barbosa (penalty) 29' for Santos, C. Oliva 39' for Santos, B. Aguirre 49' for Internacional, Bruno Henrique (penalty) 90' for Internacional. Sent off: Matheus Bahia (Internacional) 28'. On expected goals it finished 1.29–1.36.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.