6 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Coritiba vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result

Curitiba
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Coritiba 1-2 Mirassol.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Coritiba, 30% draw, 30% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Coritiba at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Coritiba0%Draw4%Mirassol96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Daniel Borges
27'
Denilson
Thiago Santos
34'
34'
João Victor
🔁Thiago Santosout: Tissi
58'
🔁Jacyout: Maicon
59'
🔁Breno Lopesout: Paulo Roberto
59'
⚽Pedro Rochaassist: Fabinho
61'
João Pedro Chermont
63'
64'
⚽Gustavo Silvaassist: Igor Formiga
🔁Joao Pedro Chermontout: Felipe Jonatan
73'
76'
🔁Alessonout: Shaylon
77'
🔁Gustavo Silvaout: Fernandinho
🔁Fabinhoout: Josue
79'
82'
🔁Wallissonout: G. Cazonatti
82'
🔁Denilsonout: Chico Kim
84'
⚽Bruno Santosassist: Igor Formiga
87'
🔁Eduardoout: Gabriel Knesowitsch
•Rodrigo Moledo
90+8'
90+2'
Shaylon

Match stats — Coritiba vs Mirassol

48%Possession52%
17Shots19
6On target7
5Corners7
1.88xG2.04

Goals against chances

Coritiba1 from 1.88 xGless than the chances were worth
Mirassol2 from 2.04 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Coritiba 4-2-3-1
  • 1Pedro MoriscoG
  • 44Joao Pedro ChermontD
  • 4Rodrigo MoledoD
  • 55JacyD
  • 26Bruno MeloD
  • 21Thiago SantosM
  • 19S. GomezM
  • 7J. LavegaM
  • 28FabinhoM
  • 77Breno LopesM
  • 32Pedro RochaF
Substitutes
  • 22Pedro RangelG
  • 3MaiconD
  • 6Felipe JonatanD
  • 14Gabriel Ibson
  • 10JosueM
  • 36Vini PaulistaF
  • 30KhensaneM
  • 39GustavoM
  • 50TissiM
Coach: Seabra Fernando
Mirassol 4-1-4-1
  • 23Alex MuralhaG
  • 32Igor FormigaD
  • 34Joao VictorD
  • 3Willian MachadoD
  • 6ReinaldoD
  • 27DenilsonM
  • 19Gustavo SilvaM
  • 80WallissonM
  • 33EduardoM
  • 77AlessonM
  • 30Bruno SantosF
Substitutes
  • 90ThomazellaG
  • 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
  • 12Victor LuisD
  • 20Daniel BorgesD
  • 2Lucas OliveiraD
  • 55G. CazonattiM
  • 10Chico KimM
  • 7ShaylonM
  • 5JapaM
Coach: Guanaes Rafael

Form going into Coritiba vs Mirassol

Coritiba

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Remo31 August 2026
  • W2-1Corinthians23 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Sao Paulo16 August 2026
  • W2-1Chapecoense8 August 2026
  • L0-1Cruzeiro31 July 2026

Mirassol

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Flamengo2 September 2026
  • D1-1Palmeiras30 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Santos23 August 2026
  • L1-5Flamengo16 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Cruzeiro9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Coritiba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Coritiba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Coritiba.
  • Mirassol did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Mirassol conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Mirassol scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Coritiba34119144051-1142
14Mirassol351011143948-941

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Coritiba vs Mirassol

  • 18 March 2026Mirassol 0–1 CoritibaSerie A
  • 6 November 2024Mirassol 4–1 CoritibaSerie B
  • 20 July 2024Coritiba 0–1 MirassolSerie B

Leading scorers: Coritiba and Mirassol

Coritiba

GoalsAssists

  • Pedro Rocha91
  • Breno Lopes81

Mirassol

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mirassol won 2–1 at Coritiba. The model had leaned towards a win for Coritiba at 40% and given a win for Mirassol 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Pedro Rocha 61' for Coritiba, Gustavo Silva 64' for Mirassol, Bruno Santos 84' for Mirassol. On expected goals it finished 1.88–2.04.

How the call on Coritiba v Mirassol has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 30% / 30%: the biggest move is Mirassol's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Coritiba win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw30%▲ +1
  3. Mirassol win30%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.