Corinthians vs Chapecoense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 1-2 Chapecoense.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Corinthians, 31% draw, 27% Chapecoense — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Corinthians at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Corinthians vs Chapecoense
Corinthians
- L0-1Santos30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Coritiba23 August 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro16 August 2026
Chapecoense
- L1-3away to Gremio30 August 2026
- W1-0Sao Paulo23 August 2026
- D3-3Bahia16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Corinthians | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 32 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table