Botafogo vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Botafogo 0-0 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Botafogo, 27% draw, 32% Palmeiras — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Botafogo at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Botafogo vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 33L. MonzonD
- 21MarcalD
- 77L. M. Villalba JaumeM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 75HuguinhoM
- 10A. MontoroM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 90Danilo PereiraF
- 17WarlesonG
- 4M. PonteD
- 36Gabriel AbdiasD
- 25AllanM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 88EdenilsonM
- 91D. AndradeM
- 34G. JustinoD
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 15G. GomezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 18MauricioM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 42J. LopezF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 21Bruno BertinatoG
- 26MuriloD
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 12KhellvenD
- 32E. MartinezM
- 50Luis PachecoM
- 48LarsonM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
Form going into Botafogo vs Palmeiras
Botafogo
All competitions we cover
- L0-3away to Flamengo30 August 2026
- L2-3Atletico Paranaense24 August 2026
- L0-1away to Vitoria16 August 2026
- D1-1Fluminense9 August 2026
- W3-2Gremio29 July 2026
Palmeiras
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Mirassol30 August 2026
- W4-1Vasco da Gama23 August 2026
- L2-3away to Fluminense15 August 2026
- D0-0Internacional9 August 2026
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
What these results say
- Botafogo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Botafogo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Botafogo and Palmeiras
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botafogo and Palmeiras drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Botafogo at 41% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. Sent off: Alexander Barboza (Palmeiras) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.10–1.11.
How the call on Botafogo v Palmeiras has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Botafogo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Botafogo win41%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Palmeiras win32%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.