6 September 2026, 00:00 UTC

Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama Serie A prediction & result

Rio de Janeiro
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Fluminense 1-0 Vasco da Gama.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Fluminense, 29% draw, 31% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Fluminense at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fluminense96%Draw4%Vasco da Gama0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Andrés Gómez
Juan Pablo Freytes
21'
21'
Daniel Fuzato
40'
Paulo Henrique
Ignácio da Silva Oliveira
45+5'
Hulk
45+6'
Yeferson Soteldo
45+6'
54'
Facundo Colidio
🔁PH Gansoout: L. Acosta
58'
60'
🔁Bruno Duarteout: Adson
⚽L. Acostaassist: Y. Soteldo
61'
🔁Y. Soteldoout: K. Serna
74'
74'
🔁Paulo Henriqueout: J. Rodriguez
74'
🔁Tche Tcheout: C. Spinelli
84'
🔁C. Cuestaout: Ramon Rique
84'
🔁out: M. Hinestroza
🔁Gugaout: Julio Fidelis
85'
🔁Hulkout: Guilherme Arana
85'

Match stats — Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama

45%Possession55%
8Shots14
4On target4
6Corners6

Line-ups

Fluminense 4-2-3-1
  • 1FabioG
  • 23GugaD
  • 4IgnacioD
  • 29J. MillanD
  • 6ReneD
  • 16NonatoM
  • 8MartinelliM
  • 17A. CanobbioM
  • 10PH GansoM
  • 30Y. SoteldoM
  • 7HulkF
Substitutes
  • 98Vitor EudesG
  • 21Igor RabelloD
  • 46Julio FidelisD
  • 13Guilherme AranaD
  • 22J. FreytesD
  • 32L. AcostaM
  • 94OtavioM
  • 11J. SavarinoF
  • 28Riquelme FelipeF
Coach: Marcao
Vasco da Gama 4-3-3
  • 1Leo JardimG
  • 96Paulo HenriqueD
  • 46C. CuestaD
  • 30Robert RenanD
  • 6Lucas PitonD
  • 3Tche TcheM
  • 5S. SosaM
  • 23Thiago MendesM
  • 9F. ColidioF
  • 19Bruno DuarteF
  • 11A. GomezF
Substitutes
  • 13Daniel FuzatoG
  • 2J. RodriguezD
  • 43Lucas FreitasD
  • 82Riquelme AvellarD
  • 10J. RojasF
  • 88Cauan BarrosM
  • 83Ramon RiqueM
  • 28AdsonF
  • 7DavidF
Coach: Pedro Emanuel

Form going into Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama

Fluminense

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Atletico Paranaense30 August 2026
  • W2-1Remo22 August 2026
  • W3-2Palmeiras15 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Botafogo9 August 2026
  • D0-0Bahia30 July 2026

Vasco da Gama

All competitions we cover

  • W3-1Cruzeiro30 August 2026
  • L1-4away to Palmeiras23 August 2026
  • L0-3Santos16 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Bahia9 August 2026
  • D1-1Mirassol25 July 2026

What these results say

  • Fluminense went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Fluminense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Fluminense3416995542+1357
11Vasco da Gama34128144550-544

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Fluminense and Vasco da Gama

Fluminense

GoalsAssists

  • John Kennedy91

Vasco da Gama

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fluminense beat Vasco da Gama 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Fluminense at 40%. The goal: L. Acosta 61' for Fluminense.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.