Palmeiras vs Internacional Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Palmeiras 0-0 Internacional.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Palmeiras, 23% draw, 32% Internacional — fair odds of 2.22, 4.35 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 45% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Palmeiras vs Internacional
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 32E. MartinezD
- 26MuriloD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 40Allan EliasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 18MauricioF
- 11J. AriasF
- 19R. SosaF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 37Riquelme Fillipi
- 56Arthur GabrielD
- 50Luis PachecoM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 42J. LopezF
- 4A. GiayD
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 3G. MaripanD
- 4F. TorresD
- 28VitinhoM
- 27Paulinho PaulaM
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 6Matheus BahiaM
- 26A. BernabeiF
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 12AnthoniG
- 25G. MercadoD
- 18JuninhoD
- 35B. AguirreD
- 53L. F. de Morais FranciscoD
- 16RonaldoM
- 9AlerrandroF
- 30CalebeM
- 31AllexM
Form going into Palmeiras vs Internacional
Palmeiras
- W4-0away to Vitoria30 July 2026
- L1-2Atletico Mineiro26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Coritiba22 July 2026
Internacional
- D1-1Flamengo29 July 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Paranaense25 July 2026
- L1-2Cruzeiro23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Internacional
- 9 August 2026Palmeiras 0–0 InternacionalSerie A
- 13 February 2026Internacional 1–3 PalmeirasSerie A
- 13 September 2025Palmeiras 4–1 InternacionalSerie A
- 16 April 2025Internacional 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 4 August 2024Internacional 1–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 17 April 2024Palmeiras 0–1 InternacionalSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and Internacional
Palmeiras
- J. López8 goals4 assists
- Maurício7 goals1 assists
Internacional
- J. Carbonero7 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.