Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 0-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Santos, 19% draw, 53% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 3.57, 5.26 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Paranaense at 53% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 77Gabriel BrazaoG
- 25Gabriel MeninoD
- 98A. FriasD
- 26Joao AnaniasD
- 31G. EscobarD
- 28C. OlivaM
- 5Joao SchmidtM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 22A. BarrealM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 1DiogenesG
- 15Willian AraoM
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 30MiguelitoM
- 42Joao AlencarD
- 57NadsonF
- 14Luan PeresD
- 11RonyF
- 16ThacianoM
- 1MycaelG
- 29G. BenavidezD
- 33F. AguirreD
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 12GilbertoM
- 16JadsonM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8Joao Cruz
- 9K. ViverosF
- 42Mateus Soares
- 18K. A. Calderon VargasF
- 6Leo Derik
- 25DantasD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 3LeoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
- 2Gilberto Junior
Form going into Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
Santos
- D2-2Chapecoense25 July 2026
Atletico Paranaense
- D0-0away to Corinthians30 July 2026
- W2-0Internacional25 July 2026
- W2-1away to Sao Paulo23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
- 9 August 2026Santos 0–2 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 12 February 2026Atletico Paranaense 2–1 SantosSerie A
- 3 December 2023Atletico Paranaense 3–0 SantosSerie A
- 5 August 2023Santos 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 28 September 2022Santos 2–0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 4 June 2022Atletico Paranaense 2–2 SantosSerie A
Leading scorers: Santos and Atletico Paranaense
Santos
- Gabriel Barbosa10 goals2 assists
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros18 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.