Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 36% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Crystal Palace at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1D. HendersonG
- 6J. CanvotD
- 26C. RichardsD
- 17T. TomiyasuD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 10Y. PinoF
- 9E. NketiahF
- 22J. LarsenF
- 44W. BenitezG
- 5A. DisasiD
- 30O. MinguezaD
- 2D. MunozD
- 19W. HughesM
- 8J. LermaM
- 11D. McNeilF
- 29E. GuessandF
- 12Z. GozoF
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 3R. DiasD
- 6M. GuehiD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 33N. O'ReillyM
- 5E. AndersonM
- 47P. FodenM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 28G. RulliG
- 21R. Ait-NouriD
- 82R. LewisD
- 22Vitor ReisD
- 61K. BraithwaiteD
- 30C. EcheverriM
- 56R. McAidooF
- 8M. KovacicM
- 32A. BouaddiM
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Crystal Palace
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026
Manchester City
All competitions we cover
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
- 13 May 2026Manchester City 3–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 14 December 2025Crystal Palace 0–3 Manchester CityPremier League
- 17 May 2025Crystal Palace 1–0 Manchester CityFA Cup
- 12 April 2025Manchester City 5–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 7 December 2024Crystal Palace 2–2 Manchester CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Manchester City
Crystal Palace
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Manchester City won 4–1 at Crystal Palace. The model had leaned towards a win for Crystal Palace at 39% and given a win for Manchester City 36%. The goals: E. Haaland 17' for Manchester City, R. Cherki 54' for Manchester City, G. Donnarumma (own goal) 56' for Crystal Palace, R. Cherki 59' for Manchester City, E. Haaland 84' for Manchester City. On expected goals it finished 0.57–1.45.