28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result

Selhurst Park, London
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Crystal Palace 1-4 Manchester City.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Crystal Palace, 25% draw, 36% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Crystal Palace at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽E. Haalandassist: A. Semenyo
33'
Rayan Cherki
54'
⚽R. Cherkiassist: P. Foden
55'
Elliot Anderson
⚽G. Donnarumma (OG)
56'
59'
⚽R. Cherkiassist: J. Gvardiol
🔁J. Larsenout: E. Guessand
63'
Anan Khalaili
68'
🔁E. Nketiahout: D. McNeil
68'
🔁Y. Pinoout: Z. Gozo
68'
🔁T. Tomiyasuout: A. Disasi
74'
🔁A. Khalailiout: O. Mingueza
75'
75'
🔁J. Gvardiolout: M. Kovacic
82'
🔁R. Cherkiout: R. McAidoo
82'
🔁E. Andersonout: A. Bouaddi
84'
⚽E. Haalandassist: P. Foden
89'
🔁A. Khusanovout: Vitor Reis
89'
🔁N. O'Reillyout: K. Braithwaite

Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

28%Possession72%
9Shots18
1On target9
2Corners6
0.57xG1.45

Goals against chances

Crystal Palace1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
Manchester City4 from 1.45 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
  • 1D. HendersonG
  • 6J. CanvotD
  • 26C. RichardsD
  • 17T. TomiyasuD
  • 25A. KhalailiM
  • 20A. WhartonM
  • 18D. KamadaM
  • 3T. MitchellM
  • 10Y. PinoF
  • 9E. NketiahF
  • 22J. LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 44W. BenitezG
  • 5A. DisasiD
  • 30O. MinguezaD
  • 2D. MunozD
  • 19W. HughesM
  • 8J. LermaM
  • 11D. McNeilF
  • 29E. GuessandF
  • 12Z. GozoF
Coach: Pierre Sage
Manchester City 4-2-3-1
  • 1G. DonnarummaG
  • 45A. KhusanovD
  • 3R. DiasD
  • 6M. GuehiD
  • 24J. GvardiolD
  • 33N. O'ReillyM
  • 5E. AndersonM
  • 47P. FodenM
  • 10R. CherkiM
  • 42A. SemenyoM
  • 9E. HaalandF
Substitutes
  • 28G. RulliG
  • 21R. Ait-NouriD
  • 82R. LewisD
  • 22Vitor ReisD
  • 61K. BraithwaiteD
  • 30C. EcheverriM
  • 56R. McAidooF
  • 8M. KovacicM
  • 32A. BouaddiM
Coach: Enzo Maresca

Form going into Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

Crystal Palace

  • L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026

Manchester City

  • W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Crystal Palace4103611-53
2Manchester City440082+612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Manchester City

  • 28 August 2026Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester CityPremier League
  • 13 May 2026Manchester City 3–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 14 December 2025Crystal Palace 0–3 Manchester CityPremier League
  • 17 May 2025Crystal Palace 1–0 Manchester CityFA Cup
  • 12 April 2025Manchester City 5–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 7 December 2024Crystal Palace 2–2 Manchester CityPremier League

Leading scorers: Crystal Palace and Manchester City

Crystal Palace

  • T. Mitchell2 goals

Manchester City

  • E. Haaland4 goals
  • R. Cherki2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.