29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bournemouth vs Everton Premier League prediction & result

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bournemouth 1-1 Everton.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bournemouth, 24% draw, 27% Everton — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bournemouth at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bournemouth96%Draw4%Everton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alex Scott
21'
Adam Smith
23'
⚽A. Scottassist: Evanilson
41'
Marcus Tavernier
53'
59'
James Garner
62'
🔁J. Garnerout: H. Hackney
62'
🔁T. Georgeout: B. Johnson
🔁L. Cookout: T. Adams
69'
70'
🔁T. Barryout: Beto
🔁Evanilsonout: A. Rodriguez
81'
🔁J. Kluivertout: D. Brooks
81'
86'
🔁H. Armstrongout: C. Alcaraz
86'
🔁M. Rohlout: T. Iroegbunam
🔁A. Scottout: R. Christie
87'
90+5'
Carlos Alcaraz
90'
⚽J. Tarkowski

Match stats — Bournemouth vs Everton

58%Possession42%
17Shots13
5On target7
10Corners7
2.14xG1.72

Goals against chances

Bournemouth1 from 2.14 xGless than the chances were worth
Everton1 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. PetrovicG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14A. SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 4L. CookM
  • 8A. ScottM
  • 37RayanM
  • 19J. KluivertM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
  • 18B. DiakiteD
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 30A. RodriguezF
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 29D. JebbisonF
  • 11B. Gannon-DoakF
Coach: Marco Rose
Everton 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PickfordG
  • 34M. RohlD
  • 6J. TarkowskiD
  • 4J. BranthwaiteD
  • 16V. MykolenkoD
  • 45H. ArmstrongM
  • 37J. GarnerM
  • 10I. NdiayeM
  • 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
  • 19T. GeorgeM
  • 11T. BarryF
Substitutes
  • 12M. TraversG
  • 15J. O'BrienD
  • 5M. KeaneD
  • 24C. AlcarazM
  • 30H. HackneyM
  • 42T. IroegbunamM
  • 22B. JohnsonF
  • 9BetoF
  • 20T. DiblingF
Coach: Leighton Baines

Form going into Bournemouth vs Everton

Bournemouth

  • L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026

Everton

  • W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Bournemouth403167-13
9Everton413053+26

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Everton

  • 29 August 2026Bournemouth 1–1 EvertonPremier League
  • 10 February 2026Everton 1–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 2 December 2025Bournemouth 0–1 EvertonPremier League
  • 26 July 2025Everton 0–3 BournemouthPremier League - Summer Series
  • 8 February 2025Everton 0–2 BournemouthFA Cup
  • 4 January 2025Bournemouth 1–0 EvertonPremier League

Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Everton

Bournemouth

  • M. Tavernier3 goals

Everton

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.