29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC

Bournemouth vs Everton Premier League prediction & result

Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bournemouth 1-1 Everton.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Bournemouth, 24% draw, 27% Everton — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bournemouth at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bournemouth96%Draw4%Everton0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alex Scott
21'
Adam Smith
23'
⚽A. Scottassist: Evanilson
41'
Marcus Tavernier
53'
59'
James Garner
62'
🔁J. Garnerout: H. Hackney
62'
🔁T. Georgeout: B. Johnson
🔁L. Cookout: T. Adams
69'
70'
🔁T. Barryout: Beto
🔁Evanilsonout: A. Rodriguez
81'
🔁J. Kluivertout: D. Brooks
81'
86'
🔁H. Armstrongout: C. Alcaraz
86'
🔁M. Rohlout: T. Iroegbunam
🔁A. Scottout: R. Christie
87'
90+5'
Carlos Alcaraz
90'
⚽J. Tarkowski

Match stats — Bournemouth vs Everton

58%Possession42%
17Shots13
5On target7
10Corners7
2.14xG1.72

Goals against chances

Bournemouth1 from 2.14 xGless than the chances were worth
Everton1 from 1.72 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Bournemouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. PetrovicG
  • 15A. SmithD
  • 5J. HillD
  • 14A. SilvaD
  • 3A. TruffertD
  • 4L. CookM
  • 8A. ScottM
  • 37RayanM
  • 19J. KluivertM
  • 16M. TavernierM
  • 9EvanilsonF
Substitutes
  • 20M. Di GregorioG
  • 18B. DiakiteD
  • 6J. SolerD
  • 10R. ChristieM
  • 12T. AdamsM
  • 30A. RodriguezF
  • 7D. BrooksM
  • 29D. JebbisonF
  • 11B. Gannon-DoakF
Coach: Marco Rose
Everton 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PickfordG
  • 34M. RohlD
  • 6J. TarkowskiD
  • 4J. BranthwaiteD
  • 16V. MykolenkoD
  • 45H. ArmstrongM
  • 37J. GarnerM
  • 10I. NdiayeM
  • 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
  • 19T. GeorgeM
  • 11T. BarryF
Substitutes
  • 12M. TraversG
  • 15J. O'BrienD
  • 5M. KeaneD
  • 24C. AlcarazM
  • 30H. HackneyM
  • 42T. IroegbunamM
  • 22B. JohnsonF
  • 9BetoF
  • 20T. DiblingF
Coach: Leighton Baines

Form going into Bournemouth vs Everton

Bournemouth

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Manchester City23 August 2026

Everton

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Crystal Palace22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Bournemouth104331614+215
6Everton104421210+216

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Everton

  • 10 February 2026Everton 1–2 BournemouthPremier League
  • 2 December 2025Bournemouth 0–1 EvertonPremier League
  • 26 July 2025Everton 0–3 BournemouthPremier League - Summer Series
  • 8 February 2025Everton 0–2 BournemouthFA Cup
  • 4 January 2025Bournemouth 1–0 EvertonPremier League

The full Bournemouth vs Everton record →

Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Everton

Bournemouth

GoalsAssists

  • Evanilson54
  • M. Tavernier50

Everton

GoalsAssists

  • T. Barry61
  • K. Dewsbury-Hall31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bournemouth and Everton drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Bournemouth at 49% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Scott 41' for Bournemouth, J. Tarkowski 90' for Everton. On expected goals it finished 2.14–1.72.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.