CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 3-1 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% CSKA Sofia, 28% draw, 23% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
CSKA Sofia at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 21F. LapoukhovG
- 5J. GbaminD
- 94I. SoletM
- 32F. RodriguezD
- 19A. YordanovD
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 11M. BrahimiM
- 8S. SensiM
- 7M. EbongM
- 10J. ZwartsF
- 28I. PittasF
- 2PastorD
- 99J. Eto'oM
- 9L. GodoyF
- 6B. JordaoM
- 3T. OuorouD
- 14T. IvanovD
- 17A. MartinoD
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 38Leo PereiraM
- 31D. HristovG
- 50E. TombakD
- 3Z. AtanasovD
- 5L. SquadroneD
- 37V. KerchevD
- 71V. PanayotovM
- 24D. TelesM
- 8A. DonchevD
- 11M. AchiM
- 10C. SidneyF
- 19G. LazarovF
- 9J. PadillaF
- 7M. Barandas
- 26Joao BandaroD
- 18P. AndreevM
- 99I. BounaasM
- 13E. NyagolovD
- 14A. TodorovM
- 22N. KostadinovM
- 29B. BeyhanM
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia
All competitions we cover
- L0-2OFI27 August 2026
- L0-3away to OFI20 August 2026
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
- L1-3Maccabi Tel Aviv13 August 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia9 August 2026
Cherno More Varna
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
- L2-3Ludogorets9 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Plovdiv1 August 2026
- L0-3Spartak Varna26 July 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for CSKA Sofia had three goals or more.
- Cherno More Varna conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cherno More Varna failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cherno More Varna had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 32 | 9 | +23 | 34 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
- 6 December 2025Cherno More Varna 2–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 9 August 2025CSKA Sofia 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 22 April 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaCup
- 9 April 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA SofiaCup
- 15 March 2025CSKA Sofia 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 28 September 2024Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
Leading scorers: CSKA Sofia and Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia
GoalsAssists
- Bruno Jordão20
- I. Pittas10
Cherno More Varna
No player in First League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
CSKA Sofia beat Cherno More Varna 3–1. The model had made a win for CSKA Sofia its most likely outcome, at 49%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: S. Sensi 20' for CSKA Sofia, J. Zwarts 30' for CSKA Sofia, C. Sidney 39' for Cherno More Varna, L. Godoy 86' for CSKA Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.