CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: CSKA Sofia 3-1 Cherno More Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% CSKA Sofia, 28% draw, 23% Cherno More Varna — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts CSKA Sofia at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
CSKA Sofia
- W5-0Botev Vratsa16 August 2026
Cherno More Varna
- W3-1Dunav Ruse21 August 2026
- L1-4away to CSKA 194814 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 6 | +17 | 23 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
- 6 December 2025Cherno More Varna 2–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
- 9 August 2025CSKA Sofia 0–0 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 22 April 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Cherno More VarnaCup
- 9 April 2025Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA SofiaCup
- 15 March 2025CSKA Sofia 1–1 Cherno More VarnaFirst League
- 28 September 2024Cherno More Varna 0–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League