Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets First League prediction & result
Final score: Spartak Varna 1-1 Ludogorets.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Spartak Varna, 29% draw, 35% Ludogorets — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Spartak Varna at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 23P. IlievG
- 76D. ValverdeM
- 44A. GranchovD
- 19S. MajorM
- 45J. TshitokuD
- 4B. IvanovD
- 77A. IvanovF
- 6R. SousaM
- 10Jota LopesM
- 11B. HanneF
- 70A. AhmedovF
- 1P. VictorG
- 3M. Juric-PetrasiloD
- 7Bua
- 9T. ChunchukovF
- 20D. Lozev
- 17T. MarinovM
- 80A. GomesF
- 82T. SilvaM
- 99G. TrifonovF
- 39H. BonmannG
- 2J. AnderssonD
- 4H. AbdelmaguidD
- 3A. NedyalkovD
- 42S. ShishkovD
- 14P. StanicM
- 11Caio VidalM
- 18I. ChochevM
- 23D. DuarteM
- 20A. CamaraM
- 9K. DuahF
- 1S. PadtG
- 15E. KurtulusD
- 7A. Salido TajeroF
- 17SonD
- 22M. PolendakovD
- 26F. KalocM
- 29E. Bile
- 40A. MarinovM
- 67A. Panayotov
Form going into Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets
Spartak Varna
All competitions we cover
- L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
- L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026
- L2-3away to Botev Plovdiv10 August 2026
- W1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv3 August 2026
- W3-0away to Cherno More Varna26 July 2026
Ludogorets
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Slavia Sofia22 August 2026
- W2-0Botev Plovdiv15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cherno More Varna9 August 2026
- W2-1Botev Vratsa2 August 2026
- D2-2Hapoel Tel Aviv30 July 2026
What these results say
- Ludogorets went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Ludogorets conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 11 | +15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets
- 19 March 2026Spartak Varna 1–5 LudogoretsFirst League
- 18 October 2025Ludogorets 1–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 19 April 2025Ludogorets 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 10 November 2024Spartak Varna 1–3 LudogoretsFirst League
- 4 April 2023Ludogorets 2–1 Spartak VarnaCup
- 11 February 2023Spartak Varna 1–2 LudogoretsFirst League
Leading scorers: Spartak Varna and Ludogorets
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
Ludogorets
GoalsAssists
- B. Tekpetey20
- Rwan Cruz12
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Spartak Varna and Ludogorets drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Spartak Varna at 36% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Major 65' for Spartak Varna, S. Shishkov 68' for Ludogorets.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.