20 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional Primera A prediction & result

Estadio General Santander
Referee: Andres Rojas, Colombia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Cucuta 1-0 Atletico Nacional.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Cucuta, 26% draw, 49% Atletico Nacional — fair odds of 4.00, 3.85 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Nacional at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽N. Parra (OG)
18'
27'
M. Uribe
🔁M. B. Carabali Lopezout: Y. Abonia
46'
Y. Abonia
52'
61'
🔁N. Rodriguezout: R. Escorcia
61'
🔁K. Parra Atehortuaout: J. Rengifo
🔁D. Calcaterraout: K. Londono
61'
🔁D. Perezout: E. M. Duarte Barajas
64'
69'
🔁M. Uribeout: E. Echeverria
🔁S. Tamaraout: J. Ceballos
70'
🔁L. Berdugoout: L. Rios
70'
82'
🔁A. Romanout: X. Rios
82'
🔁J. Campuzanoout: M. Lozano

Match stats — Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional

30%Possession70%
6Shots18
1On target7
3Corners9
0.38xG0.94

Goals against chances

Cucuta1 from 0.38 xGmore than the chances were worth
Atletico Nacional0 from 0.94 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cucuta 4-1-4-1
  • 12Federico AbadíaG
  • 33Sebastián TamaraD
  • 2Hernán LópesD
  • 4Jhon QuiñónesD
  • 30Brayan MontañoD
  • 3Diego CalcaterraM
  • 21Marlon CarabaliM
  • 10Leider BerdugoM
  • 77Carlos RenteríaM
  • 20Dayan PérezM
  • 11Gustavo TorresF
Substitutes
  • 26Yair Joao Abonia VasquezD
  • 16Kevin LondoñoM
  • 27Mauricio DuarteD
  • 8Juan CeballosM
  • 29Lucas RíosM
  • 1Juan David RamírezG
  • 7Jader ManyomaM
  • 32Jhonatan AgudeloF
  • 18Cristian CórdobaF
Atletico Nacional 4-4-2
  • 25Luis MarquinezG
  • 6Andrés RománD
  • 3Neider ParraD
  • 4César HaydarD
  • 33Samuel VelásquezD
  • 13Nicolás RodríguezM
  • 26Felipe MarinM
  • 21Jorman CampuzanoM
  • 30Kevin ParraM
  • 23James RodríguezF
  • 8Matheus UribeF
Substitutes
  • 19Juan Manuel RengifoF
  • 36Jose Rafael EscorciaF
  • 39Edwin EcheverriaF
  • 31Xavi RiosM
  • 35Matias LozanoM
  • 44Edimer ZeaG
  • 20Milton CascoD
  • 38Jhan MorenoD
  • 14Elkin RiveroM

Form going into Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional

Cucuta

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Chico11 October 2026
  • W4-0Deportivo Pereira4 October 2026
  • W2-1Llaneros26 September 2026

Atletico Nacional

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1away to Chico17 October 2026
  • D0-0Deportes Tolima8 October 2026
  • W3-1Junior1 October 2026
  • D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Nacional conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Cucuta198382126-527
1Atletico Nacional1912433818+2040

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional

  • 2 April 2026Atletico Nacional 0–0 CucutaPrimera A
  • 5 August 2025Cucuta 0–3 Atletico NacionalCopa Colombia
  • 29 July 2025Atletico Nacional 1–0 CucutaCopa Colombia
  • 15 November 2020Atletico Nacional 3–0 CucutaPrimera A
  • 27 November 2019Cucuta 0–1 Atletico NacionalPrimera A
  • 10 November 2019Atletico Nacional 3–1 CucutaPrimera A

Leading scorers: Cucuta and Atletico Nacional

Cucuta

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Atletico Nacional

GoalsAssists

  • A. Morelos166
  • A. Sarmiento117
  • E. Cardona104

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cucuta beat Atletico Nacional 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Nacional at 49% and given a win for Cucuta 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: N. Parra (own goal) 18' for Cucuta. On expected goals it finished 0.38–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cucuta a 18.3% chance to finish in the top eight: 35.6% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.6%, 17.3 points higher than before the match.

For Atletico Nacional the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura, 72.5% going in: 81.7% after a win, 66.7% after a draw, 56.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.2%, 16.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cucuta v Atletico Nacional has moved

First published on 7 Oct at 27% / 28% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 25% / 26% / 49%: the biggest move is Atletico Nacional's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Cucuta win25%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Atletico Nacional win49%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.