Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional de Bogota 2-1 Fortaleza FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Internacional de Bogota, 28% draw, 27% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Internacional de Bogota at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Wuilker FaríñezG
- 20Joan CastroD
- 2Carlos VivasD
- 26Agustín IrazoqueD
- 25Ronaldo JulioM
- 8Dewar VictoriaM
- 5Larry VásquezM
- 13Miguel PerniaM
- 10Facundo BonéF
- 7Fabricio SanguinettiF
- 11Cristián DájomeF
- 23Johan CaballeroF
- 6Miguel AmayaD
- 24Ruben ManjarresM
- 9Diego DuarteF
- 12Juan CarrascoG
- 17Fabian ChaverraM
- 32Jhon PalomequeM
- 14Mateo SantamariaM
- 22Sebastián GiradoF
- 1Williams BarlasinaG
- 16Joan CajaresD
- 6Yesid DíazD
- 5Jeferson MedinaD
- 15Santiago CueroD
- 14Leonardo PicoM
- 28Santiago VivasM
- 7Italo Montaño CortesM
- 8Sebastián NavarroM
- 24Jhoiner SalasM
- 9Sebastian HerreraF
- 19Franco PulicastroF
- 10Jhon VelásquezM
- 32Mariano VázquezM
- 25Juan GarcíaM
- 33Armando LarransM
- 22Michael BarragánG
- 3David RamírezD
- 4Edwin CabezasD
- 13Brandon MejíaM
Form going into Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Junior10 October 2026
- D1-1Once Caldas4 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pereira26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Bucaramanga20 September 2026
Fortaleza FC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Millonarios9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
What these results say
- Internacional de Bogota did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Internacional de Bogota conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Internacional de Bogota had two goals or fewer.
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 23 |
| 20 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC
- 3 April 2026Fortaleza FC 1–1 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 29 October 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 8 September 2025Fortaleza FC 1–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 15 June 2025Internacional de Bogota 0–2 Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
- 10 May 2025Fortaleza FC 4–0 Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
- 22 March 2025Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Leading scorers: Internacional de Bogota and Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
GoalsAssists
- F. Sanguinetti107
Fortaleza FC
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Internacional de Bogota beat Fortaleza FC 2–1. The model had made a win for Internacional de Bogota its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: R. Julio 13' for Internacional de Bogota, F. Pulicastro 74' for Fortaleza FC, D. S. Victoria Palacios 80' for Internacional de Bogota. Sent off: L. Vasquez (Internacional de Bogota) 70'. On expected goals it finished 0.41–1.79.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Internacional de Bogota a 7.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.1% after a win, 7.9% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.1%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.
For Fortaleza FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 40.7% going in: 17.6% after a win, 40.2% after a draw, 53.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.5%, 12.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC has moved
First published on 7 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Internacional de Bogota's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Internacional de Bogota win45%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Fortaleza FC win27%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.