20 October 2026, 23:30 UTC

Millonarios vs Once Caldas Primera A prediction & result

Estadio El Campin, Bogota
Referee: J. Bautista
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Millonarios 1-1 Once Caldas.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Millonarios, 29% draw, 24% Once Caldas — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Millonarios at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Millonarios5%Draw93%Once Caldas2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁M. Samuelout: R. Urena
28'
S. Mosquera
46'
65'
J. Cardona
🔁D. Silvaout: S. Viveros
66'
🔁L. Castroout: R. Contreras
66'
⚽D. Ruiz
68'
77'
🔁J. Quinonesout: D. Moreno
82'
🔁P. Gomezout: E. Torres
S. Vega
85'
J. Cuadrado
86'
D. Ruiz
87'
89'
⚽D. Moreno (pen)
90'
M. Barrios
90+3'
🔁J. A. Zapata Ramirezout: J. Alvarado

Match stats — Millonarios vs Once Caldas

47%Possession53%
14Shots13
3On target4
5Corners3
0.46xG1.65

Goals against chances

Millonarios1 from 0.46 xGmore than the chances were worth
Once Caldas1 from 1.65 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Millonarios 4-4-2
  • 1Javier BurraiG
  • 3Samuel MartínD
  • 4Stiven BarreiroD
  • 6Sergio MosqueraD
  • 20Danovis BangueroD
  • 10Daniel RuizM
  • 14David Macalister SilvaM
  • 28Stiven VegaM
  • 7Juan CuadradoM
  • 23Leonardo CastroF
  • 11Andrey EstupiñánF
Substitutes
  • 18Rodrigo UreñaM
  • 30Sebastián del CastilloM
  • 27Rodrigo ContrerasF
  • 12James AguirreG
  • 26Andrés LlinásD
  • 43Cristian UparelaD
  • 55LeonaiM
  • 24Julian AnguloF
  • 15Yeiner RomeroM
Once Caldas 4-1-4-1
  • 99Felipe ParraG
  • 22Juan David CuestaD
  • 2Jorge CardonaD
  • 30Daniel LondoñoD
  • 33Juan PatiñoD
  • 5Juan Pablo NietoM
  • 7Michael BarriosM
  • 23Andres ColoradoM
  • 42Jader QuinonesM
  • 9Pipe GómezM
  • 14Jefry ZapataF
Substitutes
  • 17Dayro MorenoF
  • 29Edwin TorresF
  • 15Jaime AlvaradoM
  • 12Jesús CamargoG
  • 18Jeider RiquettD
  • 16Juan CastañoD
  • 28Mateo ZuletaM
  • 19Tomas GarcíaM
  • 21Helieyker GuzmanF

Form going into Millonarios vs Once Caldas

Millonarios

Primera A

  • W4-1Jaguares17 October 2026

Once Caldas

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Independiente Medellin18 October 2026
  • W1-0Llaneros10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota4 October 2026
  • L1-3Bucaramanga26 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Deportivo Pasto20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Once Caldas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Once Caldas had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Millonarios197932716+1130
8Once Caldas197752319+428

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Millonarios vs Once Caldas

  • 21 March 2026Once Caldas 1–4 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 30 October 2025Millonarios 0–0 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 12 June 2025Millonarios 2–2 Once CaldasPrimera A
  • 9 June 2025Once Caldas 0–0 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 12 May 2025Once Caldas 2–2 MillonariosPrimera A
  • 6 March 2025Once Caldas 1–0 MillonariosCONMEBOL Sudamericana

Leading scorers: Millonarios and Once Caldas

Millonarios

GoalsAssists

  • A. Estupiñán194
  • L. Castro126
  • R. Contreras101

Once Caldas

GoalsAssists

  • D. Moreno171
  • J. Zapata133

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Millonarios a 96.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 99.8% after a win, 97.0% after a draw, 88.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 97.0%, 0.6 points higher than before the match.

For Once Caldas the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 44.5% going in: 73.4% after a win, 47.3% after a draw, 32.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 47.3%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.