Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Alianza Valledupar.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Deportivo Pasto, 28% draw, 24% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Deportivo Pasto at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Geovanni BangueraG
- 33Mateo GaravitoD
- 2Fainer TorijanoD
- 5Nicolas Gil UribeD
- 27Hervin GoyesD
- 23Yeiler GóezM
- 8Enrique SerjeM
- 25Franco LeysM
- 10Diego ChávezM
- 18Joider MicoltaF
- 7Jonathan PerlazaF
- 16Mayer GilM
- 19Patrick PreciadoF
- 15Harrinson MancillaM
- 32Matías PisanoM
- 36Julián QuiñonesD
- 3Joyce OssaD
- 17John MéndezF
- 24Kevin SantacruzM
- 13Luis MarquínezG
- 40Eduar BeltránG
- 3Kevin MorenoD
- 22Jesús FigueroaD
- 32Juan ViverosD
- 23Israel AlbaM
- 7Jair CastilloM
- 55Wiston FernándezM
- 33Jhildrey LassoM
- 88Leyner PalaciosF
- 18Cristian Andres Vergara RivasF
- 8Jesús MuñozF
- 27Yeiner LondoñoM
- 17Felipe PardoM
- 5Pedro FrancoD
- 60Yilson RosalesD
- 10Déinner QuiñonesF
- 13Antonio SimancasG
- 25Josy PérezM
Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
Deportivo Pasto
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Fortaleza FC4 October 2026
- L0-3away to Chico25 September 2026
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
Alianza Valledupar
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Águilas Doradas9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 15 |
| 16 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
- 1 April 2026Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 5 October 2025Deportivo Pasto 3–3 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 15 April 2025Alianza Valledupar 1–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 30 September 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
- 15 March 2024Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 22 July 2023Deportivo Pasto 1–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
The result against the call
Alianza Valledupar won 1–0 at Deportivo Pasto. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Pasto at 48% and given a win for Alianza Valledupar 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: I. Alba 39' for Alianza Valledupar. Sent off: D. Quinones (Alianza Valledupar) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 0.92–0.94.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Pasto a 48.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 34.6% after a win, 59.7% after a draw, 73.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.9%, 25 points higher than before the match.
For Alianza Valledupar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 40.1% going in: 13.0% after a win, 34.2% after a draw, 53.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.0%, 27.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportivo Pasto v Alianza Valledupar has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 44% / 30% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Deportivo Pasto's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Deportivo Pasto win48%▲ +4
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Alianza Valledupar win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.