20 October 2026, 00:15 UTC

Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Guillermo Laza, Buenos Aires
Referee: Pablo Echavarria
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Deportivo Riestra 1-1 Union Santa Fe.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Deportivo Riestra, 31% draw, 31% Union Santa Fe — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Riestra at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Riestra3%Draw94%Union Santa Fe3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+2'
Marcelo Estigarriba
⚽Juan Cruz Randazzoassist: Mariano Bracamonte
50'
57'
⚽Tobias Javier Rubioassist: Lucas Ayala
🔁Juan Cruz Randazzoout: Carlos Quintana
58'
🔁Braian Sánchezout: Tomás González
61'
🔁Alexander Díazout: Nicolas Benegas
62'
🔁Facundo Miñoout: Pedro Ramírez
72'
🔁Antony Alonsoout: Jonathan Goitia
72'
72'
🔁Brahian Cuelloout: Mauro Luna Diale
82'
🔁Julián Palaciosout: Erik Ramirez
88'
🔁Joaquin Mosqueiraout: Victor Malcorra
Nicolás Sansotre
89'

Match stats — Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe

35%Possession65%
13Shots12
3On target5
3Corners4
0.88xG0.74

Goals against chances

Deportivo Riestra1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth
Union Santa Fe1 from 0.74 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Riestra 5-4-1
  • 1I. ArceG
  • 36M. BracamonteD
  • 24F. MiñoD
  • 19J. RandazzoD
  • 22C. PazD
  • 15N. SansotreD
  • 10B. SánchezM
  • 8M. CélizM
  • 16N. WatsonM
  • 7Antony Daniel Alonso EspinozaM
  • 11A. DíazF
Substitutes
  • 9N. BenegasF
  • 13R. GalloD
  • 6I. GariglioD
  • 27J. GoitíaD
  • 21T. GonzálezF
  • 29M. GranerosF
  • 20T. LauroM
  • 14P. MonjeM
  • 40G. ObredorM
Coach: G. Duró
Union Santa Fe 4-4-2
  • 21M. MansillaG
  • 27T. RubioD
  • 4M. RochaD
  • 26J. LudueñaD
  • 18L. AyalaD
  • 20J. PalaciosM
  • 34Mateo PeresuttiM
  • 17J. MosqueiraM
  • 22B. CuelloM
  • 19M. EstigarribiaF
  • 25C. TarragonaF
Substitutes
  • 11M. Luna DialeM
  • 33I. IslaD
  • 8E. GiacconeM
  • 38V. J. CerrudoF
  • 36M. AimarD
  • 31M. AguirreF
  • 10V. MalcorraM
  • 40L. MeuliG
  • 15J. PintadoD
Coach: Leonardo Madelon

Form going into Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe

Deportivo Riestra

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-1away to San Lorenzo11 October 2026

Union Santa Fe

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-2Defensa Y Justicia10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Deportivo Riestra162681119-812
9Union Santa Fe166372424021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe

  • 3 April 2026Union Santa Fe 2–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 31 August 2024Union Santa Fe 0–0 Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina

Leading scorers: Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe

Deportivo Riestra

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Union Santa Fe

GoalsAssists

  • C. Tarragona172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Riestra and Union Santa Fe drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Deportivo Riestra at 38% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Cruz Randazzo 50' for Deportivo Riestra, Tobias Javier Rubio 57' for Union Santa Fe. On expected goals it finished 0.88–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Riestra a 43.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 20.8% after a win, 49.1% after a draw, 68.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 49.1%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

For Union Santa Fe the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.1% going in: 1.9% after a win, 14.9% after a draw, 34.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.9%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.