4 November 2026, 01:00 UTC

Alianza Lima vs Cienciano Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva, Lima
Referee: Sebastian Lozano
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Alianza Lima 1-0 Cienciano.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Alianza Lima, 25% draw, 20% Cienciano — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Alianza Lima at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alianza Lima97%Draw3%Cienciano0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
🔁Cristian Souzaout: Carlos Cabello
42'
Gerson Barreto
45+2'
Ademar Robles
🔁Renzo Garcesout: Fernando Gaibor
45'
Nicolás Díaz
49'
🔁Alan Martín Canteroout: Luis Ramos
54'
60'
🔁Ademar Roblesout: Gonzalo Aguirre
🔁Marco Huamanout: Kevin Quevedo
70'
⚽Erick Castillo
72'
🔁Jairo Vélezout: Alessandro Burlamaqui
75'
77'
🔁Gonzalo Aguirreout: Didier La Torre
77'
🔁Gerson Barretoout: Ray Sandoval
85'
Ray Sandoval
Luis Ramos
89'
90+2'
H. Melgarejo

Match stats — Alianza Lima vs Cienciano

57%Possession43%
16Shots6
6On target0
7Corners2
2.31xG0.74

Goals against chances

Alianza Lima1 from 2.31 xGless than the chances were worth
Cienciano0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alianza Lima 4-4-2
  • 1A. DuarteG
  • 17L. AdvínculaD
  • 6R. GarcésD
  • 3M. AntoniD
  • 13M. HuamánD
  • 11A. CanteroM
  • 5E. PavezM
  • 2N. DíazM
  • 20J. VélezM
  • 8E. CastilloF
  • 99F. GirottiF
Substitutes
  • 18A. BurlamaquiM
  • 7F. GaiborM
  • 32J. GarcíaD
  • 25G. GentileF
  • 14D´Alessandro MontenegroD
  • 27K. QuevedoF
  • 9L. RamosF
  • 29J. ArchimbaudM
  • 12Á. de la CruzG
Coach: P. Guede
Cienciano 4-4-2
  • 1G. FalcónG
  • 13C. NúñezD
  • 4M. AmondarainD
  • 3K. BecerraD
  • 16M. MartinichD
  • 7C. SouzaM
  • 88G. BarretoM
  • 5S. AriasM
  • 29A. RoblesM
  • 11N. BandieraF
  • 21C. GarcésF
Substitutes
  • 27A. YoveraD
  • 22C. CabelloD
  • 8G. AguirreM
  • 26R. AguilarD
  • 39H. CaparóM
  • 14S. CaveroD
  • 31Í. EspinozaG
  • 18D. La TorreF
  • 17R. SandovalF
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo

Form going into Alianza Lima vs Cienciano

Alianza Lima

Primera División

  • L2-3away to Sporting Cristal29 October 2026
  • W1-0away to UCV Moquegua25 October 2026
  • W3-1Atletico Grau18 October 2026

Cienciano

Primera División

  • W3-0Atletico Grau29 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Comerciantes Unidos25 October 2026
  • W1-0UTC Cajamarca18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Alianza Lima3320945424+3069
7Cienciano33155135446+850

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alianza Lima vs Cienciano

  • 16 May 2026Cienciano 0–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
  • 28 September 2025Cienciano 2–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
  • 3 May 2025Alianza Lima 0–1 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 21 August 2024Alianza Lima 3–0 CiencianoPrimera División
  • 14 March 2024Cienciano 2–1 Alianza LimaPrimera División
  • 20 August 2023Cienciano 0–0 Alianza LimaPrimera División

Leading scorers: Alianza Lima and Cienciano

Alianza Lima

GoalsAssists

  • E. Castillo216

Cienciano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Garcés184
  • A. Hohberg125
  • N. Bandiera91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Alianza Lima beat Cienciano 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Alianza Lima at 55%. The goal: Erick Castillo 72' for Alianza Lima. Sent off: H. Melgarejo (Cienciano) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 2.31–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Alianza Lima a 98.8% chance to finish top of the Primera Division: Tabla Anual: 99.9% after a win, 98.6% after a draw, 96.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.9%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.