4 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Guldensporen Stadion, Kortrijk
Referee: Bram Van Driessche, Belgium
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Kortrijk 1-3 KV Mechelen.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Kortrijk, 30% draw, 42% KV Mechelen — fair odds of 3.57, 3.33 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

KV Mechelen at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

M. Anderson
20'
23'
M. Eerdhuijzen
A. Drouhin
30'
⚽T. Ambroseassist: M. Fofana
53'
56'
T. Koudou
59'
🔁M. Decherfout: D. Praet
59'
🔁B. Ramanout: C. Van Meirvenne
J. Ndjeungoue
66'
69'
⚽M. van Brederode
🔁S. Campbellout: B. Lambert
69'
M. Fofana
71'
72'
⚽M. Fofana (OG)
🔁T. Ambroseout: J. van Landschoot
78'
🔁G. Koyalipouout: S. Ogbuehi
79'
🔁B. Dejaegereout: R. Storman
79'
R. Storman
81'
82'
🔁M. Lohunanu-Mbasiout: H. Ozdemir
82'
🔁M. Eerdhuijzenout: L. Marijnissen
🔁H. Murray-Campbellout: N. Mehssatou Sepulveda
86'
90+1'
⚽B. Lambert (OG)

Match stats — Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

39%Possession61%
11Shots14
2On target8
2Corners4
1.06xG1.32

Goals against chances

Kortrijk1 from 1.06 xGabout what the chances were worth
KV Mechelen3 from 1.32 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Kortrijk 4-3-3
  • 31Marko IlićG
  • 15Mohamed FofanaD
  • 21Axel DrouhinD
  • 5James NdjeungoueD
  • 3Matthew AndersonD
  • 19Brecht DejaegereM
  • 4Harrison Murray-CampbellM
  • 70Anthony PhilipsM
  • 11Shandre CampbellF
  • 10Goduine KoyalipouF
  • 68Thierry AmbroseF
Substitutes
  • 35Boris LambertM
  • 18Jellert Van LandschootF
  • 17Rok ŠtormanM
  • 90Sixtus OgbuehiF
  • 8Nayel MehssatouM
  • 1Patrik Sigurdur GunnarssonG
  • 36Rudy KohonD
  • 22Gilles RuyssenD
  • 14Lenn De SmetF
KV Mechelen 3-4-1-2
  • 1Ortwin De WolfG
  • 20Kobe CorbanieD
  • 44Mike EerdhuijzenD
  • 3José MarsàD
  • 23Simion MichezM
  • 6Fredrik HammarM
  • 30Marco DecherfM
  • 7Thérence KoudouM
  • 9Myron Van BrederodeF
  • 14Benito RamanF
  • 19Malcolm Lohunanu-MbasiF
Substitutes
  • 17Cedric Jan Van MeirvenneF
  • 26Dennis PraetM
  • 2Luc MarijnissenD
  • 21Halil ÖzdemirF
  • 13Nacho MirasG
  • 4Gora DioufD
  • 39Massimo DecoeneM
  • 29Bill AntonioF
  • 11Bilal BafdiliM

Form going into Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Kortrijk

Jupiler Pro League

  • D1-1away to Standard Liege31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
  • W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026

KV Mechelen

Jupiler Pro League

  • W1-0Genk31 October 2026
  • W4-3St. Truiden11 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Lommel United19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Kortrijk11119423-194
11KV Mechelen113351320-712

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

  • 29 November 2024Kortrijk 3–1 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 20 October 2024KV Mechelen 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 24 February 2024KV Mechelen 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 26 November 2023Kortrijk 0–3 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
  • 21 January 2023KV Mechelen 3–2 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
  • 11 January 2023Kortrijk 0–1 KV MechelenCup

The result against the call

KV Mechelen won 3–1 at Kortrijk. The model had made a win for KV Mechelen its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: T. Ambrose 53' for Kortrijk, M. van Brederode 69' for KV Mechelen, M. Fofana (own goal) 72' for KV Mechelen, B. Lambert (own goal) 90+1' for KV Mechelen. Sent off: J. Ndjeungoue (Kortrijk) 66'. On expected goals it finished 1.06–1.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kortrijk a 87.7% chance to finish in the bottom two: 81.9% after a win, 88.3% after a draw, 91.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 91.6%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

For KV Mechelen the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 13.4% going in: 9.3% after a win, 13.2% after a draw, 18.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.3%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Jupiler Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.