1 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas Primera División prediction & result

Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua
Referee: Daniel Ureta
Full time0 – 0

Final score: UCV Moquegua 0-0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% UCV Moquegua, 31% draw, 32% Club Deportivo Los Chankas — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

UCV Moquegua at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

UCV Moquegua5%Draw93%Club Deportivo Los Chankas2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
A. Campos
34'
Michael Kaufman
🔁Nicolas Chavezout: A. Lecaros
60'
🔁Yorman Zapataout: Allonso Alberto Dávila Cárdenas
60'
64'
•Marlon Torres
67'
⚽Jarlin Quintero (pen)
70'
🔁Brayan Guevaraout: Gonzalo Rizzo
71'
🔁Oshiro Takeuchiout: Kelvin Sanchez
🔁Brayan Anguloout: Jeferson Collazos
77'
78'
🔁A. Camposout: Félix Espinoza
81'
Michael Kaufman
86'
🔁Christian Velardeout: juan ospina
86'
🔁Marlon Torresout: Axel Chávez
🔁Cristian Mejíaout: Edgar Miguel Santillán Vargas
86'

Match stats — UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

49%Possession51%
24Shots13
10On target4
5Corners6
1.39xG1.47

Goals against chances

UCV Moquegua0 from 1.39 xGless than the chances were worth
Club Deportivo Los Chankas0 from 1.47 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
  • 1C. GradosG
  • 4A. PerlecheD
  • 13J. LojasD
  • 30J. GrandaD
  • 22E. MontenegroD
  • 8C. MejíaM
  • 25R. ChipaoM
  • 7E. LastreM
  • 10N. ChávezM
  • 17Y. ZapataM
  • 11B. AnguloF
Substitutes
  • 16Allonso Alberto Dávila CárdenasF
  • 15N. AmasifuénD
  • 90J. CollazosF
  • 34K. FerreyraM
  • 29R. FigueroaG
  • 24A. LecarosF
  • 88Y. LópezD
  • 20D. RamírezM
  • 35E. SantillánM
Coach: José Soto
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 5-3-2
  • 1H. CamachoG
  • 18O. TakeuchiD
  • 33C. PimientaD
  • 2H. GonzálezD
  • 26D. GonzálesD
  • 14B. GuevaraD
  • 17C. VelardeM
  • 30M. KaufmanM
  • 4A. CamposM
  • 11J. QuinteroF
  • 20M. TorresF
Substitutes
  • 6A. AyarzaM
  • 27K. BarriosD
  • 16A. ChávezD
  • 77F. EspinozaF
  • 7J. OspinaF
  • 12L. PretelG
  • 24G. RizzoD
  • 15K. SánchezM
Coach: J. Balazar

Form going into UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

UCV Moquegua

Primera División

  • L0-2away to ADT28 October 2026
  • L0-1Alianza Lima25 October 2026
  • W1-0away to FC Cajamarca18 October 2026

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Primera División

  • L0-1Cusco29 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Deportivo Garcilaso25 October 2026
  • W2-1ADT16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16UCV Moquegua3379172748-2130
10Club Deportivo Los Chankas33139114052-1248

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: UCV Moquegua vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

  • 17 May 2026Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–0 UCV MoqueguaPrimera División

Leading scorers: UCV Moquegua and Club Deportivo Los Chankas

UCV Moquegua

GoalsAssists

  • E. Lastre85

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

GoalsAssists

  • F. Torres95

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

UCV Moquegua and Club Deportivo Los Chankas drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for UCV Moquegua at 37% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. Sent off: Michael Kaufman (Club Deportivo Los Chankas) 81'. On expected goals it finished 1.39–1.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave UCV Moquegua a 37.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 14.5% after a win, 39.2% after a draw, 61.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 39.2%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on UCV Moquegua v Club Deportivo Los Chankas has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is Club Deportivo Los Chankas's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. UCV Moquegua win37%=
  2. Draw31%▲ +2
  3. Club Deportivo Los Chankas win32%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.