1 November 2026, 15:30 UTC

Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile Primera División prediction & result

San Carlos de Apoquindo, Santiago
Referee: Diego Flores Seguel
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Universidad Catolica 1-0 Universidad de Chile.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Universidad Catolica, 26% draw, 41% Universidad de Chile — fair odds of 3.03, 3.85 and 2.44.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Universidad de Chile at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Universidad Catolica95%Draw5%Universidad de Chile0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Clemente Montesassist: Jimmy Martínez
4'
42'
Nicolás Ramírez
🔁Juan Francisco Rosselout: Sebastián Andrés Arancibia Flores
45'
🔁Clemente Montesout: Justo Giani
58'
Cristian Cuevas
62'
66'
🔁Ignacio Vásquezout: Octavio Rivero
66'
Charles Aránguiz
🔁Jhojan Valenciaout: Alfred Canales
75'
🔁Eugenio Menaout: Agustín García Basso
75'
76'
🔁Charles Aránguizout: Lucas Emilio Barrera Hacicki
76'
🔁Tobías Reinhartout: Javier Altamirano
•Justo Giani
78'
80'
Marcelo Ariel Morales Suárez
🔁Sebastián Andrés Arancibia Floresout: Diego Corral Contreras
86'
86'
🔁Nicolás Ramírezout: Fabián Hormazabal
86'
🔁Agustín Arceout: Juan Martin Lucero
Fernando Zampedri
90+7'
90+7'
Maximiliano Guerrero

Match stats — Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile

30%Possession70%
7Shots11
2On target0
2Corners4
0.82xG0.83

Goals against chances

Universidad Catolica1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth
Universidad de Chile0 from 0.83 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Universidad Catolica 4-1-4-1
  • 27D. MeloG
  • 23Tomas AstaburuagaD
  • 5A. FaríasD
  • 26J. DíazD
  • 3E. MenaD
  • 20J. ValenciaM
  • 11C. MontesM
  • 14J. MartínezM
  • 18J. RosselM
  • 15C. CuevasM
  • 9F. ZampedriF
Substitutes
  • 7J. GianiM
  • 30D. ValenciaF
  • 1V. BernedoG
  • 21A. GarcíaD
  • 6S. ArancibiaD
  • 13A. CanalesM
  • 10M. PalavecinoM
  • 22M. GómezM
  • 25D. CorralF
Coach: Daniel Garnero
Universidad de Chile 3-4-3
  • 25G. CastellónG
  • 3I. LichnovskyD
  • 22M. ZaldiviaD
  • 5N. RamírezD
  • 7M. GuerreroM
  • 15T. ReinhartM
  • 20C. AránguizM
  • 14M. MoralesM
  • 28A. ArceF
  • 11E. VargasF
  • 23I. VásquezF
Substitutes
  • 6N. FernándezD
  • 17F. HormazábalF
  • 29L. BarreraM
  • 19J. AltamiranoM
  • 8I. PobleteM
  • 21M. DíazM
  • 18J. LuceroF
  • 9O. RiveroF
  • 1C. ToselliG
Coach: Fernando Gago

Form going into Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile

Universidad Catolica

Primera División

  • D1-1Audax Italiano28 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Union La Calera25 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Palestino12 September 2026

Universidad de Chile

Primera División

  • W4-1Everton de Vina26 October 2026
  • W6-0Nublense12 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Deportes La Serena13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Chile Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Universidad Catolica2715485637+1949
2Universidad de Chile2715664722+2551

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Universidad Catolica vs Universidad de Chile

  • 25 April 2026Universidad de Chile 1–0 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
  • 26 October 2025Universidad Catolica 1–0 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
  • 3 May 2025Universidad de Chile 1–0 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
  • 19 October 2024Universidad Catolica 1–2 Universidad de ChilePrimera División
  • 18 May 2024Universidad de Chile 1–2 Universidad CatolicaPrimera División
  • 26 January 2024Universidad Catolica 1–3 Universidad de ChileFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Universidad Catolica and Universidad de Chile

Universidad Catolica

GoalsAssists

  • F. Zampedri262
  • J. Giani74

Universidad de Chile

GoalsAssists

  • E. Vargas123
  • A. Arce74

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Universidad Catolica beat Universidad de Chile 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Universidad de Chile at 41% and given a win for Universidad Catolica 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Clemente Montes 4' for Universidad Catolica. On expected goals it finished 0.82–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Universidad Catolica these chances to finish in the top four: 97.7% after a win, 92.8% after a draw, 87.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 97.7%.

For Universidad de Chile the question was the chance to win the league, 2.6% going in: 4.7% after a win, 1.3% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Universidad Catolica v Universidad de Chile has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 26% / 41%: the biggest move is Universidad de Chile's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Universidad Catolica win33%▼ −4
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Universidad de Chile win41%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.