Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Gwangju FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% Daejeon Citizen, 20% draw, 16% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 1.56, 5.00 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Daejeon Citizen at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC
Line-ups
- 1Lee Chang-GeunG
- 33Kim Moon-HwanD
- 4Jo Seong-KwonD
- 98A. KrivotsyukD
- 16Lee Myung-JaeD
- 30Kim Bong-SooM
- 6Kang Yun-SungM
- 11Um Won-SangM
- 7M. IshidaM
- 17G. LudwigsonM
- 10Joo Min-KyuF
- 9Diogo de OliveiraF
- 27Jeong Jae-HeeF
- 13Kim Jin-YaD
- 14Kim Jun-BumM
- 31Kim Min-SooG
- 20Lee Hyun-SikM
- 26Lee Jung-TaekD
- 41Park Byung-chanM
- 19Seo Jin-SuF
- 23Kim Dong-HwaG
- 22Kwon Sung-YunD
- 4T. van GrunsvenD
- 39Min Sang-GiD
- 3Lee Min-GiD
- 40Shin Chang-MooM
- 10Choi Kyoung-RokM
- 14Yu Je-HoM
- 9Ha Seung-UnM
- 50A. Ba LouaF
- 18J. IredaleF
- 70Kim Woo-jinM
- 88Moon Min-seoM
- 33Park Won-JaeD
- 37Lee Yong-JickM
- 1Kim Kyeong-MinG
- 8Ju Se-JongM
- 17João PedroD
- 6Ahn Young-KyuD
- 21Kim Jong-SukM
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC
Daejeon Citizen
K League 1
- W2-1Jeonbuk Motors9 October 2026
Gwangju FC
K League 1
- W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 35 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 41 | +14 | 53 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 35 | 3 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju FC
- 2 August 2026Daejeon Citizen 2–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 May 2026Gwangju FC 0–5 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 17 August 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 22 June 2025Gwangju FC 2–2 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 29 March 2025Daejeon Citizen 1–1 Gwangju FCK League 1
- 2 November 2024Gwangju FC 0–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
Leading scorers: Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju FC
Daejeon Citizen
GoalsAssists
- Diogo de Oliveira62
- Jeong Jae-Hee41
- M. Ishida41
Gwangju FC
GoalsAssists
- J. Iredale90
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Daejeon Citizen beat Gwangju FC 3–2. The model had made a win for Daejeon Citizen its most likely outcome, at 64%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: John Iredale 3' for Gwangju FC, John Iredale 28' for Gwangju FC, Seo Jin-Su (penalty) 74' for Daejeon Citizen, Diogo Oliveira 78' for Daejeon Citizen, Moon Min-Seo (own goal) 90+9' for Daejeon Citizen.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Daejeon Citizen a 37.2% chance to finish in the top four: 48.0% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 48.0%, 10.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Daejeon Citizen v Gwangju FC has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 57% / 24% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 64% / 20% / 16%: the biggest move is Daejeon Citizen's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Daejeon Citizen win64%▲ +7
- Draw20%▼ −4
- Gwangju FC win16%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.