18 October 2026, 07:30 UTC

Gangwon FC vs Incheon United K League 1 prediction & result

Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Chuncheon
Referee: Tae-Hwan Seol
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Gangwon FC 1-1 Incheon United.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Gangwon FC, 32% draw, 32% Incheon United — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gangwon FC at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gangwon FC3%Draw94%Incheon United3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽Stefan Mugoša (pen)
⚽Kim Dae-wonassist: Hwang Mun-Ki
42'
56'
🔁Morgan Ferrierout: Kim Seong-Min
56'
🔁Leandro Ribeiroout: Gerso Fernandes
🔁Choe Byeong-chanout: Kim Gun-hee
66'
🔁Lee Seung-Wonout: Lee You-hyeon
66'
71'
🔁Lee Chung-Yongout: Park Seung-ho
71'
🔁Lee Min-hyukout: Seo Jae-min
72'
Gerso Fernandes
Goh Young-jun
78'
79'
Juan Ibiza
🔁Abdelkarim Chaoucheout: Kang Joon-Hyuck
89'
🔁Goh Young-junout: Park Sang-Hyeok
89'
🔁Seo Min-wooout: Kim Dong-hyeon
90+3'

Match stats — Gangwon FC vs Incheon United

64%Possession36%
16Shots7
8On target3
7Corners1

Line-ups

Gangwon FC 4-4-2
  • 1Park Cheong-HyoG
  • 88Hwang Mun-KiD
  • 47Shin Min-HaD
  • 13Lee Gi-HyukD
  • 5K. MammarD
  • 10Mo Jae-HyeonM
  • 8Lee Seung-WonM
  • 4Seo Min-WooM
  • 7Kim Dae-WonM
  • 96Choe Byeong-ChanF
  • 11Goh Young-JunF
Substitutes
  • 99Kang Joon-HyuckD
  • 6Kim Dong-HyunM
  • 9Kim Gun-HeeF
  • 41K. SungG
  • 17Eun-ho LeeF
  • 97Lee You-HyeonM
  • 24Park Ho-YoungD
  • 19Park Sang-HyeokF
  • 23M. TuciD
Coach: Chung Kyung-Ho
Incheon United 4-4-2
  • 1Kim Dong-HeonG
  • 39Kim Myung-SunD
  • 4Kim Geon-HuiD
  • 2Juan FernándezD
  • 32Lee Ju-YongD
  • 72Lee Chung-YongM
  • 5Lee Myung-JooM
  • 26Lee Min-HyeokM
  • 70Leandro RibeiroM
  • 99M. FerrierF
  • 9S. MugošaF
Substitutes
  • 13Choi Seung-GuD
  • 11GersoF
  • 17Kim Seong-MinM
  • 10Lee Dong-RyulF
  • 3Lee Sang-GiD
  • 21Lee Tae-HuiG
  • 20Park Kyung-SubD
  • 77Park Seung-HoF
  • 15Seo Jae-MinM
Coach: Jong-hwan Yoon

Form going into Gangwon FC vs Incheon United

Gangwon FC

K League 1

  • W2-0Bucheon FC 19959 October 2026

Incheon United

K League 1

  • W3-0Pohang Steelers9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Gangwon FC35121584434+1051
6Incheon United351310124437+749

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gangwon FC vs Incheon United

  • 27 September 2026Gangwon FC 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 2 May 2026Incheon United 0–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
  • 6 October 2024Incheon United 1–3 Gangwon FCK League 1
  • 30 June 2024Incheon United 0–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
  • 21 April 2024Gangwon FC 4–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 24 September 2023Gangwon FC 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1

Leading scorers: Gangwon FC and Incheon United

Gangwon FC

GoalsAssists

  • Mo Jae-Hyeon42
  • A. Halaihal40

Incheon United

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mugoša111
  • M. Ferrier51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gangwon FC and Incheon United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gangwon FC at 36% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Stefan Mugoša (penalty) 23' for Incheon United, Kim Dae-won 42' for Gangwon FC.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gangwon FC a 60.8% chance to finish in the top four: 92.3% after a win, 58.1% after a draw, 26.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 58.1%, 2.7 points lower than before the match.

For Incheon United the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 8.6% going in: 25.8% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 0.0%, 8.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.