Valerenga vs Brann Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Valerenga 3-1 Brann.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Valerenga, 25% draw, 42% Brann — fair odds of 3.03, 4.00 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Brann at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Valerenga vs Brann
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. HedvallG
- 3H. SjåtilD
- 4A. Kiil OlsenD
- 55S. JarlD
- 26D. GjengaarD
- 24P. StrandM
- 11G. ZahidM
- 10C. LangeM
- 77L. HarenM
- 17M. GrundetjernF
- 90O. SaeterF
- 29F. AmbinaM
- 6V. HedenstadD
- 15O. HolmM
- 13S. LønningG
- 37I. NäsbergD
- 7H. NielsenF
- 9G. RajkovicF
- 5K. TshiembeD
- 49A. JattaD
- 12S. NilsenG
- 23T. PedersenD
- 3F. KnudsenD
- 21N. KasanwirjoD
- 17J. SoltvedtD
- 16K. EriksenM
- 18J. SørensenM
- 19E. GuðmundssonM
- 25N. Jensen WassbergF
- 22S. MagnússonF
- 9N. CastroF
- 39J. LægreidF
- 15J. TorsvikD
- 29N. HolmF
- 11B. FinneF
- 1M. DyngelandG
- 20V. DragsnesD
- 2L. CornicD
- 43B. HaugenM
- 41Andreas WilhelmsenD
Form going into Valerenga vs Brann
Valerenga
Eliteserien
- L1-2away to KFUM Oslo12 October 2026
Brann
Eliteserien
- L0-2Viking9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Valerenga | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Valerenga vs Brann
- 26 July 2026Brann 2–3 ValerengaEliteserien
- 13 September 2025Brann 3–2 ValerengaEliteserien
- 3 May 2025Valerenga 2–4 BrannEliteserien
- 22 March 2025Brann 2–1 ValerengaFriendlies Clubs
- 27 February 2024Brann 3–0 ValerengaFriendlies Clubs
- 8 October 2023Valerenga 1–2 BrannEliteserien
Leading scorers: Valerenga and Brann
Valerenga
GoalsAssists
- L. Haren112
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm83
- K. Ingason83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Valerenga beat Brann 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Brann at 42% and given a win for Valerenga 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sebastian Jarl 36' for Valerenga, Kristian Eriksen 44' for Brann, Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 62' for Valerenga, Lucas Janus Ravn-Haren 81' for Valerenga. On expected goals it finished 2.80–2.95.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Valerenga a 39.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.9% after a win, 39.8% after a draw, 50.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.9%, 16.6 points lower than before the match.
For Brann the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.8% going in: 11.8% after a win, 4.7% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.1%, 4.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.