FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC K League 1 prediction & result
Final score: FC Seoul 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% FC Seoul, 26% draw, 21% Gimcheon Sangmu FC — fair odds of 1.89, 3.85 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FC Seoul at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Line-ups
- 25Gu Sung-YunG
- 16Choi JunD
- 37Juan AntonioD
- 5Yazan Al ArabD
- 22Kim Jin-SuD
- 7Jeong Seung-WonM
- 42J. SonM
- 6H. BabecM
- 10Anderson OliveiraM
- 9P. KlimalaF
- 27Moon Seon-MinF
- 41Hwang Do-YoonM
- 14Hyeon-Woo JeongF
- 4Lee Sang-MinD
- 20Lee Han-DoD
- 26Baek Jong-BeomG
- 19Cheon Seong-HoonF
- 18Cho Young-WookF
- 88Park Jang Han-GyeolM
- 66Park Soo-IlD
- 51Ahn Joon-SooG
- 42Hong Si-HooD
- 45Byeon Jun-SooD
- 5Kim Min-KyuD
- 33Park Jin-SeongD
- 54Yoon Jae-SeokM
- 55Park Tae-JunM
- 56Lee Kang-HyunM
- 48Hong Yun-SangM
- 49M. KangF
- 47Lee Sang-HeonF
- 57Jeong Jae-MinF
- 21Kim In-GyunF
- 65Lee Sang-HyeokD
- 2Min Kyeong-hyeonD
- 41Park Man-HoG
- 44Park Min-SeoD
- 53Roh Kyung-HoM
- 46Chung Ma-HoM
- 50Kang Ju-HyeokF
Form going into FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FC Seoul
K League 1
- W2-1Jeju United FC10 October 2026
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
K League 1
- L0-1FC Anyang10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 35 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 62 | 32 | +30 | 67 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35 | 6 | 20 | 9 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 8 August 2026Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 FC SeoulK League 1
- 2 May 2026FC Seoul 2–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 22 November 2025FC Seoul 1–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
- 17 August 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 6–2 FC SeoulK League 1
- 28 May 2025Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–1 FC SeoulK League 1
- 3 March 2025FC Seoul 0–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FCK League 1
Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FC Seoul
GoalsAssists
- P. Klimala80
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
GoalsAssists
- Go Jae-Hyeon53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Seoul and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Seoul at 53% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Patryk Klimala 22' for FC Seoul, Lee Sang-heon (penalty) 45+1' for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, Patryk Klimala 52' for FC Seoul, Kim In-gyun (penalty) 67' for Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
How the call on FC Seoul v Gimcheon Sangmu FC has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 53% / 26% / 21%: the biggest move is FC Seoul's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- FC Seoul win53%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC win21%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.