Tromso vs KFUM Oslo Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Tromso 1-1 KFUM Oslo.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Tromso, 25% draw, 23% KFUM Oslo — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Tromso at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tromso vs KFUM Oslo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. HaugaardG
- 37S. InnværD
- 4V. SkjærvikD
- 25C. ØyvannD
- 30I. VådebuD
- 29A. WarnerydD
- 5D. EdvardssonM
- 11R. JenssenM
- 70M. BjørloM
- 10T. NyhammerF
- 22H. LarsenF
- 9D. BrautF
- 17I. DahlqvistM
- 15V. ErlienF
- 33M. JattaD
- 7L. Olden LarsenF
- 12O. LauvliG
- 27M. MikkelsenD
- 24V. OsujiD
- 8J. GrundtM
- 1E. ØdegaardG
- 13B. SkaretD
- 5F. BerglieD
- 2D. SchneiderD
- 14H. HosethM
- 19E. SaunesM
- 9M. VinjorM
- 16J. HjorthM
- 11O. VistedF
- 22B. KristensenF
- 10B. NjieF
- 25H. JensenG
- 7R. RaschM
- 24H. RøstenD
- 21S. SjøkvistD
- 27T. SøråsM
- 8B. TobiassenM
- 18R. VingeF
- 42D. HicksonF
- 28M. GrødemF
Form going into Tromso vs KFUM Oslo
Tromso
Eliteserien
- D1-1away to Fredrikstad11 October 2026
KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien
- W2-1Valerenga12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tromso | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 43 | 40 | +3 | 40 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tromso vs KFUM Oslo
- 29 May 2026KFUM Oslo 0–0 TromsoEliteserien
- 7 March 2026KFUM Oslo 2–1 TromsoNM Cupen
- 31 August 2025Tromso 2–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 11 May 2025KFUM Oslo 1–3 TromsoEliteserien
- 8 May 2025Tromso 0–1 KFUM OsloNM Cupen
- 18 August 2024KFUM Oslo 0–1 TromsoEliteserien
Leading scorers: Tromso and KFUM Oslo
Tromso
GoalsAssists
- H. Larsen104
- J. Hjertø-Dahl72
KFUM Oslo
GoalsAssists
- B. Njie83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Tromso and KFUM Oslo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Tromso at 52% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Troy Engseth Nyhammer 59' for Tromso, Fredrik Tobias Berglie 66' for KFUM Oslo. On expected goals it finished 1.38–0.82.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tromso a 67.2% chance to finish in the top four: 75.8% after a win, 59.3% after a draw, 50.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.3%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.
For KFUM Oslo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.1% going in: under 1% after a win, 3.2% after a draw, 6.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 3.2%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tromso v KFUM Oslo has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Tromso's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Tromso win52%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −2
- KFUM Oslo win23%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.