8 November 2026, 12:00 UTC

Teplice vs Pardubice Czech Liga prediction & result

AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice
Referee: Ales Mach
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Teplice 1-4 Pardubice.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Teplice, 28% draw, 28% Pardubice — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Teplice at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
⚽Robert Jukl (OG)
⚽Dalibor Večerkaassist: Matěj Pulkrab
22'
45'
Václav Drchal
45+1'
⚽Arouna Ouattaraassist: Victor Samuel
45'
🔁Abdoull Tankoout: Tobias Boledovic
48'
⚽Dávid Krčík (pen)
49'
⚽Matouš Trmal (OG)
🔁John Autaout: Idris Hopi
55'
🔁Marcel Cermakout: Ladislav Takács
55'
🔁Matej Radostaout: Daniel Mareček
55'
58'
⚽Arouna Ouattaraassist: Václav Drchal
64'
Victor Samuel
65'
🔁Arouna Ouattaraout: Tomas Jelinek
🔁Jan Fortelnýout: Matej Naprstek
69'
🔁Matej Rizničout: Jaroslav Harustak
69'
Dalibor Večerka
70'
Daniel Mareček
74'
75'
🔁Victor Samuelout: Ioannis Foivos Botos
88'
🔁Václav Drchalout: Tomas Urban
88'
🔁Ryan Mahutaout: Jan Tredl
Matěj Pulkrab
90+1'

Match stats — Teplice vs Pardubice

48%Possession52%
17Shots16
4On target9
8Corners6
2.75xG2.17

Goals against chances

Teplice1 from 2.75 xGless than the chances were worth
Pardubice4 from 2.17 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Teplice 4-2-3-1
  • 29M. TrmalG
  • 3J. ŠvandaD
  • 4O. VientiessD
  • 28D. VečerkaD
  • 25M. RizničD
  • 8J. FortelnýM
  • 19R. JuklM
  • 35M. RadostaM
  • 12M. ČermákM
  • 17John AutaM
  • 10M. PulkrabF
Substitutes
  • 6M. BílekM
  • 15J. HarušťákD
  • 21I. HopiF
  • 5J. JakubkoD
  • 11M. KozákF
  • 31K. LichtenbergG
  • 37D. MarečekM
  • 27M. NáprstekF
  • 22L. TakácsD
Coach: Z. Frťala
Pardubice 4-3-3
  • 46V. NeumanG
  • 15E. GodwinD
  • 33D. HalinskýD
  • 37D. KrčíkD
  • 25R. MahutaD
  • 66A. OuattaraM
  • 6M. IchaM
  • 19M. HlavatýM
  • 20A. TankoF
  • 17V. DrchalF
  • 35S. ĎatkoF
Substitutes
  • 16T. JelínekM
  • 23L. KharatishviliG
  • 43J. NoslinD
  • 1J. ŠerákG
  • 9D. SmékalF
  • 24T. SolilM
  • 12J. TrédlD
  • 11J. ZimaM
  • 90G. BotosM
Coach: J. Trousil

Form going into Teplice vs Pardubice

Teplice

Czech Liga

  • W3-1away to Slovácko31 October 2026
  • D0-0Artis24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Mlada Boleslav17 October 2026
  • D1-1Sigma Olomouc11 October 2026

Pardubice

Czech Liga

  • L1-2Slovan Liberec31 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Plzen25 October 2026
  • W3-0Zlin17 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Sparta Praha11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Teplice failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Teplice conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Teplice had two goals or fewer.
  • Pardubice scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Pardubice conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Pardubice had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Czech Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Teplice146352222021
12Pardubice145271920-117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Teplice vs Pardubice

  • 28 February 2026Pardubice 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 28 September 2025Teplice 0–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 25 May 2025Teplice 3–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 1 March 2025Teplice 2–0 PardubiceCzech Liga
  • 28 September 2024Pardubice 0–1 TepliceCzech Liga
  • 17 February 2024Pardubice 1–1 TepliceCzech Liga

Leading scorers: Teplice and Pardubice

Teplice

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pulkrab43
  • John Auta40

Pardubice

No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Pardubice won 4–1 at Teplice. The model had leaned towards a win for Teplice at 44% and given a win for Pardubice 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Robert Jukl (own goal) 20' for Pardubice, Dalibor Večerka 22' for Teplice, Arouna Ouattara 45+1' for Pardubice, Matouš Trmal (own goal) 49' for Pardubice, Arouna Ouattara 58' for Pardubice. On expected goals it finished 2.75–2.17.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Teplice a 91.7% chance to finish in the top ten: 95.0% after a win, 91.5% after a draw, 87.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.6%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.

For Pardubice the question was the chance to finish in the top ten, 43.6% going in: 53.8% after a win, 44.1% after a draw, 36.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 53.8%, 10.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Czech Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.