9 August 2026, 20:45 UTC

Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 2-1 Newell's Old Boys.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Defensa Y Justicia, 20% draw, 42% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.63, 5.00 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Newell's Old Boys at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Defensa Y Justicia95%Draw5%Newell's Old Boys0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁A. Hauschout: D. Blanco
7'
31'
Jeronimo Russo
⚽F. Romanassist: C. Perez
32'
40'
Jeronimo Russo
40'
Jeronimo Russo
Ayrton Portillo
45+1'
César Pérez
46'
46'
🔁T. Riosout: M. Luciano
🔁out: J. Lucco
67'
🔁L. Fernandezout: T. Perez
67'
🔁A. Portilloout: V. Loza
67'
⚽T. Perezassist: V. Loza
68'
71'
🔁F. Guchout: M. E. Garcia
71'
🔁J. Gomezout: R. Herrera
71'
🔁I. Ramirezout: F. Scarpeccio
🔁D. Barbonaout: M. Porcel
81'
83'
⚽B. Cabreraassist: M. Ortega
87'
🔁M. Ortegaout: F. Escobar
Fernando Román
90+2'

Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys

59%Possession41%
16Shots10
6On target4
3Corners7
1.65xG0.62

Goals against chances

Defensa Y Justicia2 from 1.65 xGabout what the chances were worth
Newell's Old Boys1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Defensa Y Justicia 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BorgognoG
  • 16A. PortilloD
  • 29D. FernandezD
  • 21D. MartinezD
  • 3F. RomanD
  • 15S. SosaM
  • 8C. PerezM
  • 17A. HauschM
  • 19D. BarbonaM
  • 24J. GutierrezM
  • 9L. FernandezF
Substitutes
  • 36L. AmadeG
  • 5J. LopezM
  • 22M. PorcelM
  • 26J. LuccoF
  • 45T. MartinezM
  • 27D. BlancoM
  • 2S. LuceroD
  • 6E. BurdinD
  • 7T. PerezF
Coach: Mariano Soso
Newell's Old Boys 4-2-3-1
  • 30J. ReinattiG
  • 6M. OrtegaD
  • 25B. CabreraD
  • 17L. GiannettiD
  • 28J. RussoD
  • 19J. GomezM
  • 5L. RegiardoM
  • 7W. MazzanttiM
  • 20F. GuchM
  • 39T. RiosM
  • 99I. RamirezF
Substitutes
  • 21G. AriasG
  • 18M. E. GarciaF
  • 15A. SonoraM
  • 26R. HerreraM
  • 3M. LucianoD
  • 8D. SoteloM
  • 27L. GomezM
  • 24F. EscobarD
  • 2I. GlavinovichD
Coach: Lucas Bernardi

Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys

Defensa Y Justicia

  • L0-3away to Estudiantes La Plata1 August 2026
  • W2-1Deportivo Riestra29 July 2026
  • D1-1Aldosivi24 July 2026

Newell's Old Boys

  • D2-2Boca Juniors2 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
  • W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Defensa Y Justicia9522119+217
9Newell's Old Boys9342108+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Newell's Old Boys

  • 9 August 2026Defensa Y Justicia 2–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 8 February 2026Newell's Old Boys 2–3 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 17 August 2025Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 23 May 2025Defensa Y Justicia 0–2 Newell's Old BoysCopa Argentina
  • 12 February 2025Newell's Old Boys 0–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 May 2024Newell's Old Boys 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.