9 August 2026, 20:45 UTC

Gimnasia La Plata vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Gimnasia La Plata 2-0 Barracas Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Gimnasia La Plata, 22% draw, 20% Barracas Central — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gimnasia La Plata at 58% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gimnasia La Plata97%Draw3%Barracas Central0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Dardo Miloc
Ignacio Miramón
33'
42'
Rafael Barrios
46'
🔁Y. Rakout: N. Capraro
⚽A. Colazoassist: P. Silva Torrejon
46'
Alexis Steimbach
54'
60'
🔁J. Candiaout: G. Maroni
64'
Tomás Porra
72'
🔁R. Barriosout: M. Duarte
72'
🔁I. Tapiaout: L. Gamba
🔁I. Miramonout: M. Seoane
74'
🔁N. Schelottoout: L. Janson
74'
🔁A. Colazoout: M. Panaro
79'
🔁A. Auzmendiout: F. Torres
79'
Augusto Max
82'
82'
Gonzalo Maroni
🔁N. Fernandezout: B. Barros Schelotto
85'
88'
🔁R. Insuaout: J. Barbieri
⚽F. Torresassist: A. Steimbach
90'

Match stats — Gimnasia La Plata vs Barracas Central

49%Possession51%
16Shots13
6On target2
2Corners1
1.2xG0.35

Goals against chances

Gimnasia La Plata2 from 1.20 xGmore than the chances were worth
Barracas Central0 from 0.35 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Gimnasia La Plata 4-3-1-2
  • 23N. InsfranG
  • 25A. SteimbachD
  • 35J. CortazzoD
  • 21E. MartinezD
  • 24P. Silva TorrejonD
  • 5I. MiramonM
  • 16A. MaxM
  • 10N. SchelottoM
  • 8N. FernandezM
  • 29A. AuzmendiF
  • 19A. ColazoF
Substitutes
  • 15H. CastilloG
  • 9M. ZalazarF
  • 7M. PanaroF
  • 31B. Barros SchelottoD
  • 26F. TorresF
  • 18M. SeoaneM
  • 17L. JansonF
  • 42S. VillarrealM
  • 37J. LangaD
Coach: Mariano Messera
Barracas Central 5-3-2
  • 30M. MinoG
  • 13R. BarriosD
  • 14K. JappertD
  • 15Y. RakD
  • 31N. DemartiniD
  • 6R. InsuaD
  • 8T. PorraM
  • 5D. MilocM
  • 10I. TapiaM
  • 20J. CandiaF
  • 77F. BrueraF
Substitutes
  • 1J. EspinolaG
  • 37G. CampiD
  • 33G. MaroniM
  • 7J. BarbieriF
  • 2N. CapraroD
  • 79M. PuigM
  • 18M. DuarteM
  • 32F. TobioD
  • 21L. GambaF
Coach: Damian Ayude

Form going into Gimnasia La Plata vs Barracas Central

Gimnasia La Plata

  • W2-1away to Aldosivi2 August 2026
  • W1-0River Plate29 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Racing Club24 July 2026

Barracas Central

  • W1-0away to Deportivo Riestra2 August 2026
  • W1-0Aldosivi29 July 2026
  • W1-0away to River Plate25 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Gimnasia La Plata vs Barracas Central

  • 9 August 2026Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 February 2026Barracas Central 2–0 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 1 December 2025Barracas Central 0–2 Gimnasia La PlataLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 22 August 2024Barracas Central 0–1 Gimnasia La PlataCopa Argentina
  • 13 June 2024Gimnasia La Plata 2–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 March 2024Gimnasia La Plata 2–0 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional

Leading scorers: Gimnasia La Plata and Barracas Central

Gimnasia La Plata

  • M. Torres8 goals1 assists

Barracas Central

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.