Independiente vs Platense Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Independiente 0-1 Platense.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Independiente, 17% draw, 17% Platense — fair odds of 1.52, 5.88 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente at 66% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Independiente vs Platense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Rodrigo ReyG
- 4Santiago AriasD
- 13Juan FedorcoD
- 26Kevin LomónacoD
- 22Facundo ZabalaD
- 16Mateo Perez CurciM
- 23Iván MarconeM
- 28Maximiliano GutiérrezM
- 7Santiago MontielM
- 19Matías AbaldoM
- 9Gabriel ÁvalosF
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 8Maxi MezaF
- 10Luciano CabralM
- 77Santiago MeleG
- 21Fernando ClosterD
- 3Jonathan De IrastorzaD
- 35Juan Miguel ArrayagoD
- 38Luciano BarrosD
- 32David MartínezM
- 30Juan CozzaniG
- 25Juan Ignacio SaboridoD
- 13Ignacio VazquezD
- 31Víctor CuestaD
- 3Tomás Ariel SilvaD
- 26Pablo FerreiraM
- 24Martín BarriosM
- 7Guido MaineroM
- 23Leonardo HerediaM
- 10Franco ZapiolaM
- 20Luciano GiménezF
- 43Nicolás RetamarF
- 16Gastón TogniF
- 19Héctor BobadillaF
- 11Nico LópezF
- 22Nicolás SumavilG
- 32Santiago QuirosD
- 34Mateo MendiaD
- 4Agustín LagosD
- 18Bautista MerliniF
Form going into Independiente vs Platense
Independiente
- L0-1away to Velez Sarsfield3 August 2026
- W1-0Newell's Old Boys31 July 2026
- W2-0away to Estudiantes La Plata26 July 2026
Platense
- L0-4Talleres Cordoba3 August 2026
- L1-2away to Instituto Cordoba30 July 2026
- D2-2Union Santa Fe25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Independiente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 13 | Platense | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente vs Platense
- 9 August 2026Independiente 0–1 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 8 February 2026Platense 0–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 24 October 2025Independiente 3–0 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 February 2025Platense 1–1 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 19 May 2024Platense 0–0 IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 February 2023Independiente 1–2 PlatenseLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Independiente and Platense
Independiente
- G. Ávalos11 goals5 assists
Platense
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.