Santos vs Palmeiras Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Santos 0-0 Palmeiras.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% Santos, 29% draw, 42% Palmeiras — fair odds of 3.45, 3.45 and 2.38.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Palmeiras at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos vs Palmeiras
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1DiógenesG
- 23RodineiD
- 42João AlencarD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 22Á. BarrealD
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 8Gabriel BontempoM
- 11Philippe CoutinhoM
- 7EvertonM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 39Pedro AssisF
- 17G. CaballeroF
- 25Gabriel MeninoM
- 45LimaM
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 5João SchmidtM
- 34João PauloG
- 30M. TercerosM
- 33RonyF
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 26MuriloD
- 15G. GómezD
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 4A. GiayM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 11J. AriasM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 42J. LópezF
- 18MaurícioM
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 45Erick MachadoM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 43BenedettiD
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 56ArthurD
Form going into Santos vs Palmeiras
Santos
Serie A
- D1-1Bahia25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fluminense18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Atletico Mineiro11 October 2026
Palmeiras
Serie A
- W2-0RB Bragantino24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Atletico Paranaense17 October 2026
- W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Santos | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs Santos
Palmeiras and Santos have met 7 times in the records we hold, Palmeiras has won 3 of them to Santos's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Santos on 28 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 |
| Santos | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 9 goals, an average of 1.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Oct 2026
Serie ASantos 0–0 Palmeiras - 3 Sep 2026
Copa Do BrasilSantos 0–0 Palmeiras - 27 Aug 2026
Copa Do BrasilPalmeiras 3–0 Santos - 2 May 2026
Serie APalmeiras 1–1 Santos - 14 Jan 2026
Paulista - A1Palmeiras 1–0 Santos - 16 Nov 2025
Serie ASantos 1–0 Palmeiras - 7 Nov 2025
Serie APalmeiras 2–0 Santos
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Palmeiras' attack rates 20% above Santos', and Palmeiras concede 39% fewer than Santos. That gives Palmeiras the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Santos and Palmeiras
Santos
GoalsAssists
- Gabriel Barbosa154
- Neymar83
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López107
- Maurício101
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos and Palmeiras drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Palmeiras at 42% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.64–1.87.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santos a 2.4% chance to finish in the top four: 5.6% after a win, 1.3% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 1.3%, 1.1 points lower than before the match.
For Palmeiras the question was the chance to win the league, 39.7% going in: 51.2% after a win, 33.0% after a draw, 26.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.0%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Santos v Palmeiras has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 31% / 29% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 29% / 29% / 42%: the biggest move is Santos's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Santos win29%▼ −2
- Draw29%=
- Palmeiras win42%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.