23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport Eerste Divisie prediction & result

AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
Full time5 – 4

Final score: Jong AZ 5-4 Helmond Sport.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Jong AZ, 24% draw, 22% Helmond Sport — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jong AZ at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jong AZ6%Draw91%Helmond Sport3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 9 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bogdan Budkoassist: Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoe
16'
⚽Jasper Hartog
22'
29'
⚽Tarik Essakkati
35'
⚽Dean·Huibertsassist: Tarik Essakkati
🔁Andrea Nataliout: Rayan Atikallah
45'
⚽Jasper Hartogassist: Jesper Zwart
51'
59'
⚽Michel Simon Ludwigassist: Tarik Essakkati
🔁rio robbemondout: Gijs Groot
62'
🔁Jasper Hartogout: Kiani Inge
62'
68'
🔁Dean·Huibertsout: Livio Cicero
🔁Bogdan Budkoout: Adam Ouaziz
74'
77'
🔁Lovro Golicout: Flor Van Den Eynden
⚽Frej Elkjær Andersen
78'
🔁Saviola Mourinho Simons Saffoeout: Melle Roede
84'
84'
🔁Tarik Essakkatiout: Kiton Ekoli
84'
🔁Joep van der Sluijsout: Labinot Bajrami
88'
🔁Xander van der Veldeout: alen dizdarevic
89'
⚽Kiton Ekoliassist: Brian Koglin
🔁Kevin toppenbergout: J. Esajas
90'
⚽J. Esajasassist: Melle Roede
90+3'

Match stats — Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport

55%Possession45%
14Shots21
6On target9
5Corners7
1.11xG1.7

Goals against chances

Jong AZ5 from 1.11 xGmore than the chances were worth
Helmond Sport4 from 1.70 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jong AZ 4-3-3
  • 1I. KaG
  • 2J. ZwartD
  • 3A. NataliD
  • 4Mathijs MenuD
  • 5Saviola Mourinho Simons SaffoeD
  • 6Julian SijbrandsM
  • 10Bohdan BudkoM
  • 8F. AndersenM
  • 7J. HartogF
  • 9R. RobbemondF
  • 11K. ToppenbergF
Substitutes
  • 22Calvin CarrilhoD
  • 15J. EsajasD
  • 19Gijs GrootM
  • 20K. IngeD
  • 18Rick LuijerM
  • 21Adam OuazizM
  • 17M. RoedeM
  • 23K. SchilderG
  • 16K. ZeggenG
Coach: Norbert Alblas
Helmond Sport 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BergsenG
  • 20S. DekkersD
  • 4B. KoglinD
  • 14Lovro GoličD
  • 5T. PollD
  • 6M. LudwigM
  • 44Xander van der VeldeM
  • 7J. van der SluijsM
  • 10D. HuibertsM
  • 34T. EssakkatiM
  • 94Mauro LenaertsF
Substitutes
  • 11L. CiceroM
  • 9L. BajramiF
  • 22A. DizdarevićM
  • 30K. EkoliF
  • 23A. El MaachG
  • 47Dayen GeertsM
  • 43T. LandheerD
  • 35N. MeissnerF
  • 3F. Van Den EyndenD
Coach: Frédéric Frans

Form going into Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport

Jong AZ

Eerste Divisie

  • D4-4away to VVV Venlo16 October 2026
  • L0-1Den Bosch9 October 2026

Helmond Sport

Eerste Divisie

  • L0-2NAC Breda16 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Jong AZ145273331+217
18Helmond Sport153392637-1112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jong AZ vs Helmond Sport

  • 3 April 2026Jong AZ 2–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 17 October 2025Helmond Sport 4–2 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 26 January 2025Helmond Sport 2–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 18 October 2024Jong AZ 2–3 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
  • 11 March 2024Helmond Sport 3–1 Jong AZEerste Divisie
  • 10 November 2023Jong AZ 2–1 Helmond SportEerste Divisie

The result against the call

Jong AZ beat Helmond Sport 5–4. The model had made a win for Jong AZ its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Bogdan Budko 16' for Jong AZ, Jasper Hartog 22' for Jong AZ, Tarik Essakkati 29' for Helmond Sport, Dean·Huiberts 35' for Helmond Sport, Jasper Hartog 51' for Jong AZ, Michel Simon Ludwig 59' for Helmond Sport, Frej Elkjær Andersen 78' for Jong AZ, Kiton Ekoli 89' for Helmond Sport, J. Esajas 90+3' for Jong AZ. On expected goals it finished 1.11–1.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Jong AZ a 31.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 35.2% after a win, 29.2% after a draw, 24.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.2%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.

For Helmond Sport the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 47.0% going in: 35.4% after a win, 46.7% after a draw, 51.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.1%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Jong AZ v Helmond Sport has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 51% / 25% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 24% / 22%: the biggest move is Jong AZ's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Jong AZ win54%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Helmond Sport win22%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.