24 October 2026, 20:15 UTC

Cusco vs Sporting Cristal Primera División prediction & result

Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega, Cusco
Referee: A. Menendez
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Cusco 3-1 Sporting Cristal.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Cusco, 26% draw, 34% Sporting Cristal — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Cusco at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cusco99%Draw1%Sporting Cristal0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Facundo Callejoassist: Lucas Colitto
9'
José Zevallos
32'
⚽Facundo Callejo
42'
•Facundo Callejo
43'
45'
🔁Michael Hoyosout: Hernán Barcos
45'
🔁Yoshimar Yotúnout: Martín Távara
Ivan Colman
49'
62'
🔁Maxloren Castroout: Luis Abram
🔁José Zevallosout: Marlon Ruidías
62'
71'
🔁Cristianoout: Catriel Cabellos
71'
🔁Santiago Gonzálezout: Irven Avila
🔁Lucas Colittoout: Nicolás Silva
72'
⚽Aldair Fuentesassist: Ivan Colman
74'
Jean Montano
81'
🔁Ivan Colmanout: Carlos Diez
84'
🔁José Manzanedaout: Joel Herrera
86'
87'
⚽Martín Távara

Match stats — Cusco vs Sporting Cristal

49%Possession51%
23Shots15
10On target3
2Corners12
2.16xG1.31

Goals against chances

Cusco3 from 2.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sporting Cristal1 from 1.31 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cusco 4-1-4-1
  • 28P. DíazG
  • 21J. ZevallosD
  • 8A. FuentesD
  • 2C. GamarraD
  • 3R. LagosD
  • 55J. MontañoM
  • 22L. ColittoM
  • 88D. SotoM
  • 10I. ColmanM
  • 7J. ManzanedaM
  • 9F. CallejoF
Substitutes
  • 6Á. AmpueroD
  • 14C. DiezM
  • 77J. HerreraM
  • 24M. RuidíasD
  • 26N. SilvaF
  • 99Miguel SilveiraM
  • 11J. TévezF
  • 16O. ValenzuelaM
  • 13A. VidalG
Coach: Javier Rabanal
Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. EnríquezG
  • 8L. SosaD
  • 20M. AraujoD
  • 5R. LutigerD
  • 90Cris SilvaD
  • 6A. ÁlvarezM
  • 19Y. YotúnM
  • 7S. GonzálezM
  • 16L. IbericoM
  • 23M. CastroM
  • 22M. HoyosF
Substitutes
  • 25G. TávaraM
  • 27GabrielM
  • 32L. DíazD
  • 77J. CuestaF
  • 21C. CabellosM
  • 33C. BautistaG
  • 29H. BarcosF
  • 96L. AbramD
  • 11I. ÁvilaF
Coach: R. Mosquera

Form going into Cusco vs Sporting Cristal

Cusco

Primera División

  • L1-2away to Sport Huancayo16 October 2026

Sporting Cristal

Primera División

  • W4-2Comerciantes Unidos18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Peru Primera División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Cusco33163144647-151
5Sporting Cristal33156126348+1551

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cusco vs Sporting Cristal

Cusco and Sporting Cristal have met 7 times in the records we hold, Cusco has won 3 of them to Sporting Cristal's 2, with 2 drawn.

The record

Cusco won the last one 3–1 on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Cusco322118
Sporting Cristal223811

Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Primera División    Cusco 3–1 Sporting Cristal
  • 3 May 2026
    Primera División    Sporting Cristal 2–2 Cusco
  • 14 Dec 2025
    Primera División    Cusco 2–0 Sporting Cristal
  • 11 Dec 2025
    Primera División    Sporting Cristal 1–0 Cusco
  • 14 Sep 2025
    Primera División    Cusco 3–2 Sporting Cristal
  • 13 Apr 2025
    Primera División    Sporting Cristal 1–0 Cusco
  • 22 Sep 2024
    Primera División    Cusco 1–1 Sporting Cristal

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Sporting Cristal's attack rates 32% above Cusco's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Cusco0.621.60
Sporting Cristal0.821.62

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Cusco and Sporting Cristal

Cusco

GoalsAssists

  • F. Callejo182

Sporting Cristal

GoalsAssists

  • H. Barcos134
  • L. Iberico110

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cusco beat Sporting Cristal 3–1. The model had made a win for Cusco its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Facundo Callejo 9' for Cusco, Facundo Callejo 42' for Cusco, Aldair Fuentes 74' for Cusco, Martín Távara 87' for Sporting Cristal. On expected goals it finished 2.16–1.31.

How the call on Cusco v Sporting Cristal has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 25% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Cusco's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Cusco win40%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Sporting Cristal win34%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.