1 November 2026, 21:05 UTC

Deportivo Cali vs Chico Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira
Referee: Alvaro Jose Melendez Panneflek, Colombia
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Cali 2-0 Chico.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Deportivo Cali, 24% draw, 11% Chico — fair odds of 1.54, 4.17 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Cali at 65%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Cali99%Draw1%Chico0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽C. Baccaassist: J. Martinez
32'
38'
A. Maya
J. Moya
45+4'
48'
🔁S. Meraout: D. A. Ramirez Raigosa
N. Benedetti
59'
🔁C. Baccaout: Titi
63'
🔁A. Manyomaout: E. Bello
63'
67'
E. Sarria
🔁J. Martinezout: J. Dinenno
68'
73'
🔁J. Alomiaout: J. Palma
⚽J. Dinennoassist: E. Bello
79'
🔁G. Cuellarout: R. Pajaro
83'
89'
🔁J. Pimentelout: J. Pimentel Betancourt
89'
🔁A. Mayaout: S. Viveros

Match stats — Deportivo Cali vs Chico

54%Possession46%
9Shots11
6On target2
5Corners2
0.67xG0.76

Goals against chances

Deportivo Cali2 from 0.67 xGmore than the chances were worth
Chico0 from 0.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Cali
  • 1Pedro GalleseG
  • 15Léyser ChaverraD
  • 2José MoyaD
  • 4Fernando ÁlvarezD
  • 26Juan José TelloD
  • 8Daniel GiraldoM
  • 5Gustavo CuéllarM
  • 19Johan MartínezM
  • 21Nicolás BenedettiM
  • 14Alexis ManyomaM
  • 70Carlos BaccaF
Substitutes
  • 20Eduard BelloF
  • 23Steven RodríguezF
  • 9Juan DinennoF
  • 13Ronaldo PájaroD
  • 38Alejandro RodríguezG
  • 16Keimer SandovalD
  • 36Miguel CorreaM
  • 45Matías BoteroF
  • 18Avilés HurtadoF
Coach: Rafael Dudamel
Chico
  • 1David AgudeloG
  • 24Cristián MosqueraD
  • 2Daniel PolancoD
  • 5Jhonier AlomíaD
  • 14Cristian BlancoD
  • 17Estiven SarriaM
  • 28Jesús CárdenasM
  • 6Juan DiazM
  • 16Santiago MeraM
  • 22Alejandro MayaF
  • 21Jacobo PimentelF
Substitutes
  • 11Delio RamírezM
  • 25Sebastián PalmaD
  • 19Jeronimo PimentelM
  • 20Sebastián ViverosM
  • 12Branndon ZapataG
  • 18Junior PalaciosD
  • 10Yesus CabreraM
Coach: Jhon Gomez

Form going into Deportivo Cali vs Chico

Deportivo Cali

Primera A

  • D1-1away to Fortaleza FC25 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Llaneros21 October 2026

Chico

Primera A

  • D1-1Junior28 October 2026
  • W1-0Bucaramanga23 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Deportivo Cali199822812+1635
15Chico195591529-1420

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Cali vs Chico

  • 17 April 2026Chico 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • 25 August 2025Chico 0–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • 14 June 2025Chico 1–0 Deportivo CaliCopa Colombia
  • 10 March 2025Deportivo Cali 0–0 ChicoPrimera A
  • 11 August 2024Chico 1–0 Deportivo CaliPrimera A
  • 10 February 2024Deportivo Cali 4–0 ChicoPrimera A

Leading scorers: Deportivo Cali and Chico

Deportivo Cali

GoalsAssists

  • S. Rodríguez113

Chico

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Cali beat Chico 2–0. The model had made a win for Deportivo Cali its most likely outcome, at 65%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: C. Bacca 32' for Deportivo Cali, J. Dinenno 79' for Deportivo Cali. Sent off: N. Benedetti (Deportivo Cali) 59'. On expected goals it finished 0.67–0.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Chico a 36.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.3% after a win, 24.6% after a draw, 42.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.3%, 6.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Deportivo Cali v Chico has moved

First published on 19 Oct at 62% / 26% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 65% / 24% / 11%: the biggest move is Deportivo Cali's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Deportivo Cali win65%▲ +3
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. Chico win11%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.