Como vs Venezia Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Como 1-0 Venezia.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Como, 23% draw, 11% Venezia — fair odds of 1.52, 4.35 and 9.09.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Como at 66%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Como vs Venezia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ButezG
- 27Yan CoutoD
- 4Jacobo Ramón NaverosD
- 2M. KempfD
- 16KaikiD
- 6Luis MillaM
- 21S. RicciM
- 7L. da CunhaM
- 10N. PazM
- 20M. BaturinaM
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 22M. VigoritoG
- 3Álex ValleD
- 28I. SmolčićD
- 97Robert SánchezG
- 5M. PerroneM
- 15A. LahdoM
- 53Willy Kambwala NdengushiD
- 18E. GoldanigaD
- 13A. DossenaD
- 1F. StankovićG
- 25R. HalhalD
- 2M. MorenoD
- 15Juan JesusD
- 18A. HainautM
- 21Þ. HelgasonM
- 19S. SohmM
- 6G. BusioM
- 70P. MazzocchiM
- 45A. AdamsF
- 29L. LauberbachF
- 20R. SagradoD
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 17A. Bella-KotchapD
- 26T. BašićM
- 7A. RrahmaniF
- 71Kike PérezM
- 96L. MontipòG
- 16R. MohammedD
- 56K. LismanF
Form going into Como vs Venezia
Como
Serie A
- W3-1away to Torino27 October 2026
- W2-0Sassuolo24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Fiorentina18 October 2026
Venezia
Serie A
- L0-2Inter28 October 2026
- L0-1away to Genoa25 October 2026
- W1-0Napoli17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Como | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 19 | Venezia | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Como vs Venezia
Como and Venezia have met 7 times in the records we hold, Como has won 3 of them to Venezia's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Como won the last one 1–0 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 |
| Venezia | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
Serie AComo 1–0 Venezia - 8 Mar 2025
Serie AComo 1–1 Venezia - 8 Dec 2024
Serie AVenezia 2–2 Como - 3 Mar 2024
Serie BComo 2–1 Venezia - 20 Aug 2023
Serie BVenezia 3–0 Como - 1 Apr 2023
Serie BVenezia 3–2 Como - 6 Nov 2022
Serie BComo 1–0 Venezia
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Como's attack rates 72% above Venezia's, and Como concede 40% fewer than Venezia. That gives Como the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Como and Venezia
Como
GoalsAssists
- T. Douvikas50
Venezia
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Como beat Venezia 1–0. The model had made a win for Como its most likely outcome, at 66%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goal: Lucas Da Cunha (penalty) 43' for Como. On expected goals it finished 1.63–0.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Como a 61.0% chance to finish in the top four: 63.7% after a win, 55.8% after a draw, 50.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.7%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
For Venezia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 75.9% going in: 64.1% after a win, 73.8% after a draw, 78.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.1%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Como v Venezia has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 67% / 21% / 12% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 66% / 23% / 11%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Como win66%▼ −1
- Draw23%▲ +2
- Venezia win11%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.