1 November 2026, 23:10 UTC

Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: Carlos Ortega, Colombia
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Independiente Medellin 2-1 Alianza Valledupar.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Independiente Medellin, 24% draw, 19% Alianza Valledupar — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Independiente Medellin at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
P. Franco
E. Mena Perea
32'
🔁A. Marteganiout: D. Moreno
34'
37'
⚽A. Murillo (OG)
⚽D. Catanoassist: F. Fabra
45'
🔁A. Murilloout: J. Montano
46'
🔁Yony Gonzalezout: J. Martinez
55'
62'
🔁E. W. Meza Mercadoout: B. Viafara
62'
🔁F. Pardoout: Y. Londono
🔁D. Catanoout: K. Klinger
68'
D. Moreno
70'
75'
🔁M. Martinezout: J. E. Perez Balcazar
75'
🔁Y. Rosalesout: J. Munoz
76'
J. Figueroa
85'
🔁W. Fernandezout: C. Villegas
86'
J. Viveros
⚽J. Martinez
87'
J. Martinez
90+1'

Match stats — Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar

46%Possession54%
11Shots9
4On target2
11Corners3
1.29xG0.22

Goals against chances

Independiente Medellin2 from 1.29 xGmore than the chances were worth
Alianza Valledupar1 from 0.22 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Independiente Medellin
  • 25Eder ChauxG
  • 26Esneyder MenaD
  • 39Luis EscorciaD
  • 19Alfonso SimarraD
  • 3Anderson Yair MurilloD
  • 16Halam LoboaM
  • 21Agustín MarteganiM
  • 11Yony GonzálezM
  • 10Daniel CatañoM
  • 18Frank FabraM
  • 9Jeison MedinaF
Substitutes
  • 31Diego MorenoM
  • 20John Edwin MontañoF
  • 15Jackson MartínezF
  • 34Keiner KlingerM
  • 1Salvador IchazoG
  • 5Joaquin VarelaD
  • 27Eider CarrilloM
  • 24Nivaldo ErazoM
  • 32Carlos LucumiF
Coach: Luis Perea
Alianza Valledupar
  • 40Eduar BeltránG
  • 5Pedro FrancoD
  • 22Jesús FigueroaD
  • 32Juan ViverosD
  • 60Yilson RosalesM
  • 6Ever MezaM
  • 7Jair CastilloM
  • 33Jhildrey LassoM
  • 55Wiston FernándezF
  • 77Misael MartínezF
  • 17Felipe PardoF
Substitutes
  • 11Brayan ViafaraF
  • 27Yeiner LondoñoM
  • 8Jesús MuñozM
  • 25Josy PérezM
  • 14Charly VillegasF
  • 13Antonio SimancasG
  • 2Sebastián QuiñonesD
Coach: Flabio Torres

Form going into Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar

Independiente Medellin

Primera A

  • L1-3away to Internacional de Bogota29 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Atletico Nacional25 October 2026

Alianza Valledupar

Primera A

  • L0-1away to Once Caldas28 October 2026
  • W1-0Internacional de Bogota25 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Independiente Medellin1910272925+432
16Alianza Valledupar1953111833-1518

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Valledupar

  • 19 April 2026Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • 13 July 2025Independiente Medellin 1–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 27 January 2025Alianza Valledupar 1–1 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • 10 October 2024Independiente Medellin 2–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 24 February 2024Alianza Valledupar 2–0 Independiente MedellinPrimera A
  • 20 August 2023Independiente Medellin 2–1 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A

The result against the call

Independiente Medellin beat Alianza Valledupar 2–1. The model had made a win for Independiente Medellin its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: A. Murillo (own goal) 37' for Alianza Valledupar, D. Catano 45' for Independiente Medellin, J. Martinez 87' for Independiente Medellin. Sent off: D. Moreno (Independiente Medellin) 70'. On expected goals it finished 1.29–0.22.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Independiente Medellin a 63.0% chance to finish in the top eight: 76.0% after a win, 47.4% after a draw, 29.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.0%, 13 points higher than before the match.

For Alianza Valledupar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 5.1% going in: under 1% after a win, 1.1% after a draw, 7.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.5%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primera A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Independiente Medellin v Alianza Valledupar has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 60% / 23% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Independiente Medellin's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Independiente Medellin win57%▼ −3
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Alianza Valledupar win19%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.