Macara vs Independiente del Valle Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Macara 1-0 Independiente del Valle.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Macara, 24% draw, 38% Independiente del Valle — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Macara at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Macara vs Independiente del Valle
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. RodriguezG
- 25J. BolañosD
- 4J. JiménezD
- 14J. MarrufoD
- 27J. MohorD
- 5J. EstacioM
- 16J. CazaresM
- 28A. CampanaM
- 15M. TelloM
- 20M. VieraM
- 9F. PosseF
- 12D. CueroG
- 52B. CoelloM
- 50C. CaicedoM
- 13L. AyalaD
- 11Tono EspinozaM
- 21S. EtchebarneD
- 22L. FerroF
- 87J. KlingerF
- 26M. MedrandaD
- 1A. QuintanaG
- 13Daykol Alejandro Romero PadillaD
- 14M. CarabajalD
- 5R. SchunkeD
- 19L. LoorD
- 6J. AlcívarM
- 11M. PerellóM
- 28H. QuintanaM
- 10J. SornozaM
- 31Emerson Ivan Pata RodríguezM
- 9C. GonzálezF
- 16R. BrionesM
- 15G. CortézD
- 4J. EspinozaD
- 18Steven Daniel Góngora PalaciosF
- 32J. MéndezM
- 8Y. OchoaM
- 70M. PeraltaG
- 56E. QuinteroM
- 99D. ReascoF
Form going into Macara vs Independiente del Valle
Macara
Liga Pro
- W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026
Independiente del Valle
Liga Pro
- W2-1Aucas10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 67 |
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 35 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 81 | 37 | +44 | 84 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Macara vs Independiente del Valle
- 5 September 2026Independiente del Valle 3–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 16 May 2026Macara 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 12 July 2025Macara 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 16 March 2025Independiente del Valle 1–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 24 November 2024Independiente del Valle 7–0 MacaraLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Macara and Independiente del Valle
Macara
GoalsAssists
- F. Posse175
- A. Campana123
Independiente del Valle
GoalsAssists
- C. González111
- D. Reasco94
- M. Perelló84
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Macara beat Independiente del Valle 1–0. The goal: augustin campana 59' for Macara. On expected goals it finished 0.98–1.76.
How the call on Macara v Independiente del Valle has moved
First published on 4 Oct at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 24% / 38%: the biggest move is Macara's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Macara win38%▲ +2
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Independiente del Valle win38%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.