Casa Pia vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Casa Pia, 24% draw, 35% Benfica — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Casa Pia at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Casa Pia vs Benfica
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31A. GomesG
- 18A. GeraldesD
- 4J. GoulartD
- 43D. SousaD
- 5A. ConteD
- 24S. PerezM
- 80L. OforiM
- 8GabiM
- 19K. PrietoF
- 9H. AraujoF
- 10RochinhaF
- 22D. AzevedoG
- 95I. MandicG
- 27Kaique RochaD
- 75P. RosasD
- 3KalyD
- 11R. BlancoM
- 16S. CluaM
- 59A. DafeM
- 13K. OsundinaF
- 24S. SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 44T. AraujoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 10G. SudakovM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 1A. TrubinG
- 58D. BanjaquiD
- 62J. NetoD
- 13J. KaminskiM
- 16ManuM
- 33Gabriel Indio
- 20R. RiosM
- 73M. FigueiredoM
- 22J. DuranF
Form going into Casa Pia vs Benfica
Casa Pia
- L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026
Benfica
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
- W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
- W5-0FC St. Gallen30 July 2026
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Casa Pia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 1 |
| 2 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Benfica
- 17 August 2026Casa Pia 0–7 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 6 April 2026Casa Pia 1–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 9 November 2025Benfica 2–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Casa Pia 3–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2024Benfica 3–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 17 March 2024Casa Pia 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Benfica
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Benfica
- V. Pavlidis8 goals2 assists
- G. Prestianni5 goals2 assists
- L. Barreiro2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.