17 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Sporting Gijon vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result

El Molinón, Gijon
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Sporting Gijon 0-0 Sabadell.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Sporting Gijon, 24% draw, 45% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sabadell at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sporting Gijon4%Draw91%Sabadell5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Yanis Rahmani (pen)
40'
Óscar Sanz
Manuel Rodríguez
45'
🔁N. Iosifovout: H. Guillamon
62'
🔁A. Sarcoout: K. de la Fuente
62'
63'
🔁J. Priegoout: X. Moreno
63'
🔁Y. Rahmaniout: N. Gioacchini
🔁out: P. Garcia
67'
74'
🔁P. Ponsout: E. Aguilar Elizalde
78'
Quadri Liameed
🔁E. Gularteout: A. Dunabeitia
84'
🔁M. Rodriguezout: Nacho Martin
84'
85'
🔁Bonaldoout: J. Catala
90+2'
Edgar González

Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Sabadell

56%Possession44%
8Shots15
5On target2
1Corners8
0.82xG2.01

Goals against chances

Sporting Gijon0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth
Sabadell0 from 2.01 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sporting Gijon 4-4-2
  • 1R. YanezG
  • 2G. RosasD
  • 4E. GularteD
  • 15P. VazquezD
  • 5D. SanchezD
  • 10C. Gelabert PinaM
  • 8M. RodriguezM
  • 14A. CorrederaM
  • 20N. IosifovM
  • 19J. OteroF
  • 16A. SarcoF
Substitutes
  • 13E. AranaG
  • 3P. GarciaD
  • 24A. DunabeitiaD
  • 26I. MartinezD
  • 23J. SaenzD
  • 22H. GuillamonM
  • 6Nacho MartinM
  • 11K. de la FuenteM
  • 27E. O. PrendesF
Coach: Nicolas Larcamon
Sabadell 3-1-4-2
  • 1D. FuoliG
  • 14O. Sanz
  • 6E. GonzalezD
  • 5BonaldoD
  • 20A. Orriols CerarolsM
  • 7T. RipollM
  • 22Q. LiameedM
  • 8P. PonsM
  • 4M. CodinaM
  • 19Y. RahmaniF
  • 23J. PriegoF
Substitutes
  • 13J. OrtegaG
  • 31M. EstevezG
  • 15J. C. Lazaro CerveraD
  • 27J. CatalaD
  • 24E. Aguilar Elizalde
  • 30X. MorenoM
  • 17A. CosciaF
  • 16N. GioacchiniF
  • 10M. A. Ramirez CarrascoF
Coach: Ferran Costa

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Sporting Gijon521223-17
11Sabadell52214408

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Sabadell

  • 17 August 2026Sporting Gijon 0–0 SabadellSegunda División
  • 20 March 2021Sabadell 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
  • 25 November 2020Sporting Gijon 3–1 SabadellSegunda División

Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Sabadell

Sporting Gijon

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Sabadell

  • N. Gioacchini3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.