3 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów I Liga prediction & result

Stadion ROSRRiT, Siedlce
Referee: P. Pskit
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Pogoń Siedlce 1-1 Ruch Chorzów.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Pogoń Siedlce, 30% draw, 40% Ruch Chorzów — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ruch Chorzów at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pogoń Siedlce96%Draw4%Ruch Chorzów0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽S. Kobusinskiassist: K. Mis
14'
20'
T. Sutherland
49'
A. Lukic
62'
🔁M. Konczkowskiout: F. Wojcik
62'
🔁D. Szczepanout: A. Coscia
F. Kendzia
71'
73'
🔁P. Szwedzikout: S. Nagamatsu
73'
🔁M. Chrapekout: K. Rostek
🔁D. Szuprytowskiout: M. Marzec
74'
82'
🔁T. Sutherlandout: M. Pawlowski
🔁S. Kobusinskiout: N. Zielonka
85'
🔁C. Demianiukout: R. Makowski
85'
90'
⚽M. Pawlowski
M. Kizyma
90+3'
B. Poczobut
90+6'

Form going into Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów

Pogoń Siedlce

I Liga

  • W1-0away to Odra Opole25 October 2026
  • L3-4Stal Rzeszów18 October 2026
  • L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026

Ruch Chorzów

I Liga

  • W2-0Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki25 October 2026
  • W3-0Odra Opole16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

I Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Pogoń Siedlce145451717019
5Ruch Chorzów146441714+322

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów

  • 13 February 2026Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
  • 8 August 2025Ruch Chorzów 0–2 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
  • 17 February 2025Pogoń Siedlce 1–1 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
  • 2 August 2024Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
  • 1 December 2021Pogoń Siedlce 1–1 Ruch ChorzówII Liga - East
  • 30 July 2021Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Pogoń SiedlceII Liga - East

The result against the call

Pogoń Siedlce and Ruch Chorzów drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Ruch Chorzów at 40% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. Kobusinski 14' for Pogoń Siedlce, M. Pawlowski 90' for Ruch Chorzów.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pogoń Siedlce a 29.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.1% after a win, 28.8% after a draw, 34.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 28.8%.

For Ruch Chorzów the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 40.0% going in: 46.0% after a win, 36.7% after a draw, 33.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.7%, 3.3 points lower than before the match.

Read from our I Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.