Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Lokomotiv Sofia 2-5 Botev Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lokomotiv Sofia, 26% draw, 38% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Botev Plovdiv at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Line-ups
- 29A. AralicaF
- 99M. VelichkovG
- 8I. YordanovM
- 11A. TaouiF
- 23O. OdukoD
- 42N. NeychevM
- 20D. KostadinovM
- 6EirôD
- 5E. DostM
- 7S. DelevF
- 91R. BidoungaD
- 77Caue CaruzoF
- 18Joyce Kati KatulondiF
- 44B. KatsarovM
- 3K. KostovD
- 14A. LyaskovD
- 24A. LyubenovG
- 16M. MedfaiM
- 26K. MiloshevM
- 9G. MinchevF
- 10A. ChandarovM
- 90S. KaluF
- 15B. KostovD
- 77Lucas AraújoM
- 30Franklin MascoteF
- 19Mauro RodriguesF
- 22M. SengerD
- 4N. SoldoD
- 44E. UkakiD
- 16V. VidolovM
- 29D. NaumovG
- 20T. AwanyD
- 27B. HeinD
- 82V. MendesD
- 66C. MeottiF
- 17G. MilanovM
- 21Nikolay PrandzhevG
- 7Alberto SalidoM
- 11S. ShopovM
- 1H. SlavkovG
Form going into Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
First League
- D1-1Botev Vratsa24 October 2026
- D1-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna20 September 2026
Botev Plovdiv
First League
- L0-4away to CSKA 194823 October 2026
- W1-0Slavia Sofia10 October 2026
- W3-0away to Septemvri Sofia19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
- 21 July 2026Botev Plovdiv 1–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 27 March 2026Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFriendlies Clubs
- 6 December 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 3–2 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 10 August 2025Botev Plovdiv 0–1 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
- 18 April 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 1–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 15 December 2024Lokomotiv Sofia 1–5 Botev PlovdivCup
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia
GoalsAssists
- S. Delev11
- D. Kostadinov10
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Plovdiv won 5–2 at Lokomotiv Sofia. The model had made a win for Botev Plovdiv its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: mascote 2' for Botev Plovdiv, mascote 41' for Botev Plovdiv, Dimitar Kostadinov 45+2' for Lokomotiv Sofia, Adil Taoui 53' for Lokomotiv Sofia, Mauro Rodrigues 55' for Botev Plovdiv, Samuel Kalu 61' for Botev Plovdiv, mascote 75' for Botev Plovdiv.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lokomotiv Sofia a 31.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 21.3% after a win, 34.1% after a draw, 39.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.2%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.
For Botev Plovdiv the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.5% going in: 10.4% after a win, 6.3% after a draw, 4.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.4%, 2.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.