16 October 2026, 22:20 UTC

Deportivo Recoleta vs Rubio NU Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Roque F. Batelhana, Asuncion
Referee: Derlis Lopez
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Deportivo Recoleta 1-0 Rubio NU.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Deportivo Recoleta, 25% draw, 32% Rubio NU — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Recoleta at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo Recoleta97%Draw3%Rubio NU0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez
27'
Claudio Garay
30'
🔁lucas monzonout: Marcos Antonio Pereira Esteche
45'
🔁Facundo Ariel Echeguren Zarzaout: Marcelo Medina
45'
🔁Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguezout: Wilfrido Baez
45'
🔁Claudio Garayout: Alejandro Silva
63'
66'
🔁Lucas Daniel Montiel Rodríguezout: Carlos Giménez
66'
🔁Octavio Alfonsoout: Rodrigo Rojas
⚽Renzo José Martino Campuzanoassist: Wilfrido Baez
67'
70'
Maximiliano Garrone
72'
🔁Sergio Fretesout: E. Alfonso
72'
🔁Tobías Leivaout: A. Páez
73'
🔁Rodrigo Ruiz Díazout: Steven·Perez
82'
Cristian Nunez
🔁José Espínolaout: Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán
87'
Renzo José Martino Campuzano
90+4'
90+5'
•Franco Fragueda
90+5'
Franco Fragueda

Match stats — Deportivo Recoleta vs Rubio NU

51%Possession49%
12Shots20
2On target7
3Corners4
1.56xG1.56

Goals against chances

Deportivo Recoleta1 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth
Rubio NU0 from 1.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2
  • 13O. ToledoG
  • 2F. A. Echeguren ZarzaD
  • 5N. MarottaD
  • 32L. MonzónD
  • 18P. RiosD
  • 36B. FerreiraM
  • 6J. EspínolaM
  • 21C. GarayM
  • 33A. GonzálezM
  • 25Renzo José Martino CampuzanoF
  • 11K. ParzajukF
Substitutes
  • 3L. CardozoD
  • 20M. CañeteM
  • 30P. CharpentierF
  • 7R. DomínguezM
  • 12N. FerreiraG
  • 8F. GaleanoM
  • 15B. MedinaD
  • 4M. PereiraD
  • 31M. ShuppM
Coach: J. González
Rubio NU 4-2-3-1
  • 25F. FraguedaG
  • 13V. CabañasD
  • 3J. VallejosD
  • 5P. ÁlvarezD
  • 19M. GarroneD
  • 23Tobías LeivaM
  • 15C. NúñezM
  • 26S. FretesM
  • 29O. AlfonsoM
  • 35L. MontielM
  • 9R. Ruiz DíazF
Substitutes
  • 7E. AlfonsoM
  • 18M. AcostaM
  • 36C. GiménezD
  • 16J. GonzálezD
  • 27A. LedesmaM
  • 32L. MaldonadoG
  • 10W. MendietaM
  • 17Kevin ParedesF
  • 20A. PáezF

Form going into Deportivo Recoleta vs Rubio NU

Deportivo Recoleta

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Nacional Asuncion12 October 2026
  • L1-2Libertad Asuncion3 October 2026

Rubio NU

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Olimpia11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sportivo Ameliano6 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Deportivo Recoleta1944112133-1216
10Rubio NU1945102136-1517

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Recoleta vs Rubio NU

  • 7 August 2026Rubio NU 1–3 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 26 March 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–0 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 29 January 2026Rubio NU 1–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 28 July 2024Deportivo Recoleta 2–0 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
  • 19 April 2024Rubio NU 2–2 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Intermedia

Leading scorers: Deportivo Recoleta and Rubio NU

Deportivo Recoleta

GoalsAssists

  • A. Wlk131
  • A. González51

Rubio NU

GoalsAssists

  • R. Ruiz Díaz43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Deportivo Recoleta beat Rubio NU 1–0. The model had made a win for Deportivo Recoleta its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Renzo José Martino Campuzano 67' for Deportivo Recoleta. Sent off: Maximiliano Garrone (Rubio NU) 70', Franco Fragueda (Rubio NU) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.56–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo Recoleta a 93.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 88.8% after a win, 96.3% after a draw, 98.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 88.8%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.

For Rubio NU the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.6% going in: 25.6% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 49.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 49.0%, 9.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.