Clausura - 22 · 29 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Our model says: Deportivo Recoleta 2–1 Sportivo Luqueno

The model makes it 44% Deportivo Recoleta, 24% draw, 32% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Deportivo Recoleta 1.97, Sportivo Luqueno 1.59.

Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Deportivo Recoleta's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Luqueno's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 16 points from 19 games; Sportivo Luqueno are 8th on 22 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Deportivo Recoleta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cerro Porteno.
  • Sportivo Luqueno have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to 2 de Mayo.
  • Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Luqueno 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 28 October 2026, ended Sportivo Luqueno 0–2 Deportivo Recoleta.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno

69%
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Deportivo Recoleta win Draw Sportivo Luqueno win
  1. 1–19%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–27%
  4. 2–27%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 1–05%

Scores read Deportivo Recoleta first; the other scorelines share the remaining 52%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Deportivo Recoleta at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno

Deportivo Recoleta

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D1-1away to Cerro Porteno8 November 2026
  • L1-4away to Olimpia5 November 2026
  • W3-0Sportivo Ameliano31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to 2 de Mayo24 October 2026
  • W1-0Rubio NU16 October 2026

Sportivo Luqueno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-02 de Mayo9 November 2026
  • W5-0away to Rubio NU5 November 2026
  • L0-3Nacional Asuncion31 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
  • W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Deportivo Recoleta scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Luqueno had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Deportivo Recoleta1944112133-1216
8Sportivo Luqueno1971112533-822

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Luqueno

  • 28 October 2026Sportivo Luqueno 0–2 Deportivo RecoletaCopa Paraguay
  • 20 September 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 11 April 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 13 February 2026Deportivo Recoleta 1–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 7 November 2025Deportivo Recoleta 2–3 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 23 August 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura

Leading scorers: Deportivo Recoleta and Sportivo Luqueno

Deportivo Recoleta

GoalsAssists

  • A. Wlk131
  • A. González51

Sportivo Luqueno

GoalsAssists

  • I. Maggi52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sportivo Luqueno (8th, with Deportivo Recoleta 11th), while our numbers lean to Deportivo Recoleta. Deportivo Recoleta rate 0.61 in attack and 1.88 in defence, Sportivo Luqueno 0.70 and 1.99 (lower is better in defence), so Deportivo Recoleta have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 6-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Deportivo Recoleta Sportivo Luqueno
0.61 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.7
1.88 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.99
1.97 Model expected goals (this match) 1.59

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Deportivo Recoleta the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Deportivo Recoleta against 1.59 for Sportivo Luqueno. Deportivo Recoleta's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.99 for Sportivo Luqueno.

Deportivo Recoleta carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.34 for Sportivo Luqueno. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Deportivo Recoleta to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Deportivo Recoleta to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 3 points, Deportivo Recoleta's ratings take away 2 points and Sportivo Luqueno's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level47%+3
  4. Deportivo Recoleta's ratings45%−2
  5. Sportivo Luqueno's ratings44%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Deportivo RecoletaSportivo Luqueno
19Matches19
4W 4D 11LRecord7W 1D 11L
21 1.1 per gameGoals scored25 1.3 per game
33 1.7 per gameGoals conceded33 1.7 per game
3 of 19Clean sheets4 of 19
4 of 19Failed to score7 of 19
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 3
43 2.3 per gameYellow cards35 1.8 per game
4Red cards1
4-4-2 17×Usual shape4-1-4-1 7×

Deportivo Recoleta at home · Sportivo Luqueno away

9Played9
3W 1D 5LRecord3W 1D 5L
13–15Goals for – against13–15
2 of 9Clean sheets2 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Deportivo Recoleta 19, Sportivo Luqueno 19.

Deportivo Recoleta scored 422653
Sportivo Luqueno conceded 719647

Deportivo Recoleta score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Sportivo Luqueno have let in 6 there.

Sportivo Luqueno scored 035258
Deportivo Recoleta conceded 835529

Sportivo Luqueno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Deportivo Recoleta have let in 9 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.